Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed mixed on Monday after a volatile session, driven by easing global bond sell-offs and the ongoing deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 7,402.81 points, the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.5% to 26,090.73 points, while the Dow Jones rose 0.3% to 49,686.12 points. Market pressure mainly came from the technology sector ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings release this week, which is viewed as a key test for the sustainability of the AI stock rally.
Media reports stated that both the U.S. and Iran had revised their peace proposals, but the two sides remain far from reaching an agreement. Oil prices initially climbed due to renewed Middle East tensions before trimming gains after President Donald Trump postponed a planned military strike on Iran.
Trump said the delay came following requests from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, adding that serious negotiations were currently underway. However, he emphasized that the U.S. military remains ready to launch a large-scale attack if talks fail.
Tensions escalated after a drone strike hit a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates, while Saudi Arabia claimed it had intercepted three drones from Iraq. Market focus is now on NVIDIA’s earnings report on Wednesday to assess the strength of the AI trend that has supported U.S. equities.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks closed higher on Monday after a volatile trading session, rebounding from losses seen last week. Investors monitored developments in the Middle East amid growing concerns that rising oil prices could fuel inflation and weigh on global economic growth.
The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.5% to 610.17 points after previously falling nearly 0.9% earlier in the session. Despite the rebound, markets remain overshadowed by the deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could intensify energy-driven inflationary pressures on the global economy.
Expectations that central banks may resume interest rate hikes also triggered bond market sell-offs. Germany’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to its highest level in 15 years, while markets are now pricing in a potential 50 basis point rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) by year-end.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stock markets declined on Monday, led by losses in technology shares ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings release this week. Market sentiment was also pressured by rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Investors are now awaiting NVIDIA’s earnings report on Wednesday for signals on whether the artificial intelligence (AI)-driven rally can continue supporting global markets
Markets also digested weaker Chinese economic data for April. China’s industrial output grew just 4.1% YoY, below expectations of 6.0%, while retail sales rose only 0.2%, far weaker than the projected 2.0%, signaling continued weakness in consumer demand.
Across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1% and TOPIX declined 0.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.7%, with the Hang Seng TECH Index plunging 2.5%. Meanwhile, China’s CSI 300 fell 1% and the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.5%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices fell more than 2% in early Asian trading on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had postponed a planned attack on Iran to allow room for negotiations aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.
Brent crude for July delivery dropped USD3.01 or 2.7% to USD109.09 per barrel at 00:01 GMT, while June West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell USD1.38 or 1.3% to USD107.28 per barrel. In the previous session, both benchmarks had reached their highest levels since May 5 and April 30, respectively.
The June WTI contract expires on Tuesday, while the more actively traded July contract declined USD2.06 or 2% to USD102.32 per barrel.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 1.85% at 6,599.24, pressured by selling in conglomerate-related stocks and foreign outflows amid market anticipation over the May 2026 MSCI rebalancing. DSSA remained under significant selling pressure, while BREN and AMMN began showing signs of recovery during the second trading session.
Amid market pressure, several blue-chip stocks such as ASII and TLKM managed to strengthen, followed by ITMG as a USD earner benefiting from concerns over Rupiah weakness against the U.S. dollar. These gains helped the IDX Composite form a hammer pattern by the market close.
USD/IDR sentiment remains a key market concern. If selling pressure continues, the IDX Composite could test the 6,500 level. In the short term, investors may focus on stocks that are still able to hold support areas with solid fundamentals and attractive valuations.
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