Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed slightly higher on Monday, supported by gains in chip stocks. However, market gains remained limited amid fresh diplomatic tensions between Washington and Tehran. Investors also remained cautious ahead of this week’s U.S. inflation data releases, which are expected to reflect the impact of surging oil prices caused by the war. April CPI data is scheduled for release on Tuesday, while PPI data will follow on Wednesday.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to close at 7,412.49 points, marking its first-ever close above the 7,400 level. The NASDAQ Composite gained 0.4% to a record high of 26,274.13 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% to 49,704.34 points.
Over the weekend, Iranian state media reported that Tehran had responded to a U.S. proposal aimed at ending the conflict that has lasted for more than two months. Iran called for a ceasefire across all fronts, recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation from the U.S. for war damages. However, President Donald Trump rejected the proposal, calling it “unacceptable” as it did not include commitments regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Trump also described the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire as extremely fragile.
Markets are also closely watching Trump’s visit to China this week after reports that China continues to purchase Iranian oil and provide diplomatic support to Tehran amid the ongoing conflict.
Outside the Middle East issue, investors are preparing for upcoming U.S. inflation data releases. Surging oil prices due to the war have driven gasoline prices higher in the U.S. and boosted headline CPI and PPI, although core inflation has so far remained relatively stable.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks traded mixed on Monday as investors monitored President Donald Trump’s remarks describing Iran’s response to the U.S. peace proposal as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.”
The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 0.1%, while Germany’s DAX also gained 0.1%. The UK’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.4%, whereas France’s CAC 40 declined 0.7%.
According to Iranian state television, Tehran had responded to the U.S. proposal to end the more than two-month-long conflict, focusing on ending hostilities across all fronts and demanding compensation for war damages.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stock markets advanced on Monday despite escalating tensions in the Middle East. Gains in chip stocks and optimism surrounding the upcoming U.S.-China summit helped markets withstand the impact of rising oil prices.
Chinese equities strengthened after Beijing confirmed that President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump would hold a summit later this week. The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes rose 1.2% and 0.7%, respectively, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.4%. Chinese state media reported that Trump and Xi will meet in Beijing on May 13–15, marking the first major visit by a U.S. leader to China in nearly a decade. The meeting is expected to cover trade tariffs, Taiwan, the Middle East conflict, and a possible extension of the trade truce reached in October 2025.
Chinese government data also showed April consumer inflation rose above expectations, while producer price inflation surged to its highest level in nearly four years, driven by rising import costs due to the Middle East conflict.
South Korea’s KOSPI was the region’s best-performing index, soaring nearly 5% to a record high on a rally in chip stocks. SK Hynix surged nearly 12%, while Samsung Electronics climbed almost 6%, with both stocks reaching record highs amid strong AI-driven demand for memory chips.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.4%, pressured by an almost 9% decline in Nintendo shares after the company reported disappointing earnings and guidance.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose more than USD 2 on Monday after President Donald Trump described Iran’s response to the U.S. peace proposal as “unacceptable,” leaving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved with no clear end to the conflict in sight.
Brent crude gained USD 2.39 or 2.36% to USD 103.68 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose USD 2.07 or 2.17% to USD 97.49 per barrel. Earlier in the session, both benchmarks touched intraday highs of USD 105.99 and USD 100.37 per barrel, respectively. Last week, both oil benchmarks had recorded weekly losses of around 6% amid hopes that the 10-week-long conflict would soon end and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could resume.
• INDONESIA : The JCI ell deeper into negative territory, declining 0.92% to 6,905.6, mainly pressured by losses in BREN and DSSA amid market concerns over the potential deletion of the stocks from the MSCI Indonesia index. Commodity-related stocks briefly opened higher with a gap up at the start of the second trading session yesterday following delays in discussions regarding royalty adjustment cuts.
Currently, investor concerns in Indonesia remain focused on domestic risks, particularly the exchange rate and policies perceived as less supportive toward investors, especially given the IHSG’s underperformance compared to regional peers. For now, a wait-and-see approach appears preferable.
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