Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street indexes hit fresh record highs on Friday, driven by a strong rally in chipmaker stocks amid optimism over surging AI industry demand. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to a record 7,398.93 points, the NASDAQ Composite jumped 1.7% to 26,247.08 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was steady at 49,609.16 points.
Intel Corporation stood out after surging nearly 14% to a record high following reports that the company had reached a preliminary chip manufacturing agreement with Apple Inc.. Market sentiment was also supported by stronger-than-expected April nonfarm payrolls data, signaling the U.S. economy remains resilient and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through year-end.
Meanwhile, Iran reportedly rejected U.S. demands to dismantle its nuclear facilities and halt uranium enrichment for 20 years. U.S. President Donald Trump described Iran’s response as “totally unacceptable.”
In its counterproposal, Iran suggested ending the war and gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels, while also calling on the U.S. to lift its blockade on Iranian ships. Negotiations over nuclear issues are expected to continue for 30 days, including discussions on reducing highly enriched uranium. Iran’s state broadcaster, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), stated that the proposal’s main focus is ending the war and ensuring shipping security.
• EUROPEAN MARKET :European stocks declined on Friday after renewed exchanges of fire between the U.S. and Iran shook confidence in the month-long ceasefire. Concerns over global energy supplies prompted investors to move away from risk assets.
The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.7%, while Germany’s DAX dropped 1.4%, the UK’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.4%, and France’s CAC 40 declined 1.1%. International Airlines Group (IAG), parent company of British Airways, warned that annual profit would come in below expectations due to soaring jet fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict.
France’s transport minister said he does not expect mass flight cancellations this summer despite jet fuel shortages. However, Transavia France has already cut 2% of its May and June flights as Europe seeks alternatives to Middle Eastern fuel supplies, which account for around three-quarters of the region’s aviation fuel needs.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks fell on Friday, with Japanese and South Korean markets retreating from record highs after renewed military tensions between the U.S. and Iran dampened hopes for an end to the war. Regional sentiment was also weighed down by weaker Wall Street performance overnight after the U.S. military said it intercepted attacks targeting three warships in the Strait of Hormuz.
South Korea’s KOSPI was among the region’s worst performers, falling 1.6% and moving further away from record highs reached earlier in the week. Still, the index remained Asia’s best-performing market this week with gains exceeding 11%, supported by rallies in chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and SK Hynix Inc amid continued optimism surrounding AI demand.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX both fell more than 1%. Strong Japanese wage data — showing real wages rising for a third consecutive month in March — further strengthened expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Despite the correction, the Nikkei was still on track to gain around 4% for the week following its post-Golden Week rally
Meanwhile, China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes declined 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively, although both remained up more than 1% for the week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.2%, but was still up nearly 2% this week thanks to gains in technology stocks.
• COMMODITIES:Oil prices jumped around USD 3 per barrel on Monday after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach a peace agreement proposed by Washington, while the Strait of Hormuzremained largely closed, keeping global energy suppliestight. Brent crude futures rose USD 3.18, or 3.14%, to USD 104.47 per barrel as of 23:36 GMT, extending Friday’s 1.23% gain. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood at USD 98.51 per barrel, up USD 3.09 or 3.24%, after previously settling 0.64% higher in the prior session
• INDONESIA : The JCI plunged deeper into negative territory, falling 2.86% to 6,969.4, with most of the correction driven by commodity-based stocks after a proposed royalty adjustment sparked a highly negative market reaction. Many commodity-related stocks moved toward the lower auto rejection limit (ARB), particularly tin, nickel, and gold issuers, which experienced significant declines.
Although markets have become somewhat accustomed to geopolitical tensions, investor concerns are now increasingly focused on domestic risks, particularly currency stability and policies perceived as less investor-friendly. These concerns continue to weigh on sentiment, especially given the IHSG’s underperformance relative to other regional markets. A wait-and-see approach is currently seen as the safer strategy.
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