Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street lost momentum on Thursday and closed lower after hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal faded due to conflicting statements from Tehran. Market sentiment was also pressured by reports that Washington was reconsidering operations to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Near the market close, Iranian state media reported that the U.S. had attacked an Iranian oil tanker, further weighing on sentiment.
The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,335.66 points, the NASDAQ Composite slipped 0.1% to 25,806.20 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.6% to 49,596.60 points.
The U.S. and Iran were reportedly drafting an initial framework for a peace agreement with the help of mediators, with talks expected to begin next week in Pakistan. However, key differences regarding Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief remain unresolved.
U.S. President Donald Trump said the talks were progressing “very well” and claimed the U.S. had “won” the war. However, Iran delivered mixed signals. State media said the U.S. proposal was still under review, while other Iranian officials described it as merely an American “wish list.”
The U.S. military also said it acted in self-defense after Iran attacked three U.S. warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned Iran would face harsher attacks if it failed to quickly reach a deal with Washington. Renewed tensions in Hormuz and the possibility of restarting commercial ship escort operations weakened market optimism over an end to the Middle East conflict.
• EUROPEAN MARKET :European stocks fell on Thursday after a sharp rally in the previous session, as investors assessed progress toward a U.S.-Iran peace deal that had previously pushed oil prices sharply lower.
The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 closed down 1.1% after surging more than 2% on Wednesday. Most regional markets, including France, Germany, and the U.K., also moved lower.
European equities have continued to lag global peers since the conflict began, as elevated energy costs caused by supply disruptions following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz fueled inflation concerns and clouded economic growth prospects.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks surged on Thursday, with Japanese markets reopening at record highs as growing optimism over a U.S.-Iran peace deal fueled a rally in risk assets.
Regional markets also took positive cues from Wall Street’s overnight gains, while chip stocks posted strong advances following blockbuster earnings from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Japan was the best-performing market of the day, with the Nikkei 225 soaring nearly 6% to a record high of 62,958 points. The TOPIX also gained 3.4%. Japan experienced a “catch-up” rally after an extended holiday since Friday. The Nikkei was further supported by gains in technology shares, which rallied on renewed optimism surrounding AI developments. Chipmakers and related companies recorded significant gains in line with global peers, while SoftBank Group jumped more than 16%.
In South Korea, markets lagged slightly after previously hitting a series of record highs driven by chip stocks. The KOSPI fell 0.2%, but still posted an exceptional 71% gain year-todate, making it the best-performing Asian index this year.
Other Asian markets also mostly moved higher, while lower oil prices provided some relief across the region. Investor focus is now centered on easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
• COMMODITIES: U.S. crude oil prices briefly surged as much as 3% in early Friday trading after hostilities between the U.S. and Iran flared up again. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 2.58% or USD 2.45 to USD 97.26 per barrel as of 22:33 GMT, after previously climbing more than 3%. The U.S. military said it carried out retaliatory strikes against Iran on Thursday, targeting sites believed to be responsible for attacks on U.S. forces. Meanwhile, Iran’s military accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire between the two countries, claiming the U.S. attacked two ships in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted civilian areas. The WTI contract had previously settled down 27 cents at USD 94.81 per barrel in the prior trading session.
• INDONESIA : The JCI managed to extend gains into positive territory, rising +1.15% to 7,174.32. The market will next test the 7,200 resistance level, and if it fails to break out from that area, there is potential for a retest of the 7,000 level amid heated U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, strengthening oil prices, and the final trading session of the week.
In the latest trading session, the market was supported by rotation into banking stocks, which strengthened significantly, as well as conglomerate-related stocks shifting from the Barito group toward Sinarmas-linked names such as DSSA, MORA, and EXCL.
Investors should remain cautious of selling pressure in big banks. Although valuations remain attractive, selling pressure is still substantial amid Indonesia’s macroeconomic contraction. Despite commodities still facing negative sentiment from the windfall tax issue, continued strength in commodity prices could present buy-on-weakness opportunities.
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