Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed at a record high on Friday as optimism increased over the continuation of U.S.–Iran peace talks. A strong quarterly report from Intel, which lifted the technology sector, also improved market sentiment. The main indexes posted a mixed performance: the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite—dominated by technology stocks—closed at record levels, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined.
The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,164.73 points, the NASDAQ gained 1.6% to 24,836.60 points, while the Dow fell 0.2% to 49,229.48 points. After a threeweek rally that saw the S&P 500 surge 11.6%, the market lost some of its momentum this week, with the benchmark index rising only 0.5%. The NASDAQ gained 1.5% on a weekly basis, while the Dow declined 0.4%
This loss of momentum came despite extensions of ceasefires between the U.S.–Iran and Israel–Lebanon, mainly due to heightened tensions around the crucial Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and coastlines. This narrow passage has remained largely closed, with multiple ship attacks and vessel seizures from both sides. Iran has called the U.S. blockade an “act of war” and a violation of the ceasefire, demanding its removal before continuing peace talks. Meanwhile, Donald Trump stated that the blockade will remain in place until an agreement is reached.
Nevertheless, market participants have tended to look past the Middle East conflict and focus more on the first-quarter earnings season, which so far has shown solid performance for U.S. corporations.
The technology sector has been one of the standout performers, particularly semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—a key gauge of chip stocks—on Friday extended the longest daily winning streak in its 32-year history.
• EUROPEAN MARKET :European stocks slipped on Friday as hopes for a quick deal to end the Iran war faded and concerns over oil supply disruptions persisted. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.6%, Germany’s DAX dipped 0.1%, F
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks fell on Friday as technology shares lost momentum amid stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks and a renewed surge in oil prices, while investors also assessed slightly stronger inflation data from Japan.
South Korea’s KOSPI edged down 0.4% to 46,452.29 points after hitting a record high in the previous session. The benchmark remained on track for a weekly gain of more than 4%, driven by heavyweight chip stocks. China’s Shanghai Composite fell 0.5%, while the CSI 300 slipped 0.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.5%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index declining 1%.
In Japan, government data released on Friday showed core inflation— excluding fresh food—rose 1.8% year-on-year in March, up from 1.6% in February but still below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The Bank of Japan is set to meet next week, with expectations that interest rates will be held steady, though signaling potential hikes ahead. The Nikkei 225 edged up 0.4% after hitting a record high on Thursday, while the broader TOPIX slipped 0.1%.
• COMMODITIES : U.S. crude oil prices rose in early Wednesday trading despite Washington announcing an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, as uncertainty remained high and the Strait of Hormuz was still effectively closed. WTI crude oil briefly climbed to USD 90.70 per barrel and was trading up 59 cents (0.7%) at USD 90.26 as of 22:15 GMT, after gaining 2.8% on Tuesday.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 3.38% in the red at 7,129.5, breaking below the 7,200 support level. The last key support lies at the psychological level of 7,000. The Indonesian market is starting to show resilience to U.S.–Iran geopolitical sentiment, while the IHSG reform agenda—highlighted by the release of HCL—has brought some positive momentum. However, caution is still warranted due to potential volatility alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions. Selling pressure from BREN and DSSA remains a drag on the index following their exclusion from LQ45, IDX30, and IDX80. On the positive side, post-HCL implementation, the IDX is aligning more closely with MSCI standards. Investors should also remain cautious of selling pressure in big banks, as despite attractive valuations, heavy selling persists amid Indonesia’s macroeconomic contraction.
Download full report HERE.
