Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed at record levels on Wednesday, driven by positive sentiment from the extension of the US–Iran ceasefire. President Donald Trump also signaled the possibility of further peace talks. Market focus has started shifting toward the first-quarter earnings season, with Tesla kicking off results from the “Magnificent 7.” The S&P 500 rose 1%, NASDAQ Composite gained 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7%—all closing at record highs.
Earlier, markets had weakened due to concerns over failed negotiations. However, Trump extended the ceasefire until Iran consolidates its negotiation stance, citing the country’s “divided” internal condition and encouragement from Pakistan as a mediator. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the move was made because Iran needs to “get its house in order.” Talks had briefly stalled—JD Vance canceled a visit, and Iran declined to attend— although Trump said dialogue could resume soon.
On the other hand, Iran has not issued an official stance on the extension, although President Masoud Pezeshkian stated openness to dialogue while highlighting blockades and threats as key obstacles. Tensions remain elevated, with three vessels attacked in the Strait of Hormuz despite the ceasefire extension.
• EUROPEAN MARKET :In Europe, equities declined as investors remained cautious over shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The STOXX 600 fell 0.4%, DAX dropped 0.3%, CAC 40 plunged 1%, and FTSE 100 slipped 0.2%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian markets were generally sluggish. Tech stocks weakened, while Japan posted fresh highs. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.4% (with its tech subindex down 2%), while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.5% to a record level, and TOPIX declined 0.7%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices surged by more than USD 3 per barrel, driven by an unexpected drop in US gasoline and distillate inventories as well as reports of attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 3.48% to USD 101.91, and West Texas Intermediate climbed 3.67% to USD 92.96. US natural gas prices also strengthened amid geopolitical tensions.
Meanwhile, gold prices edged higher despite a stronger dollar. Spot gold rose 0.4% to USD 4,740.15 per ounce, and futures gained 0.8% to USD 4,758.40 per ounce, supported by geopolitical uncertainty and hopes for continued peace talks.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 0.24% in the red at 7,541.6, still facing resistance in the 7,600–7,700 range. The Indonesian market is starting to show resilience to US–Iran geopolitical sentiment. Going forward, the IHSG reform agenda—marked by the release of HCL— provides a positive catalyst. However, caution is still warranted due to potential volatility amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. The index remains pressured by declines in Barito Renewables Energy (BREN) and Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA), which may face outflows following the May 2026 update, where HCL stocks are set to be removed from the MSCI Indonesia Index. Nevertheless, beyond geopolitical and MSCI-related sentiment, the IHSG appears relatively supported at current levels and has largely priced in these factors.
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