Today’s Outlook :

 

• US MARKET : Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday, erasing early session gains, after media reports raised concerns over a breakdown in further U.S.–Iran peace talks. Market focus was also on the confirmation hearing of Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, who called for “major changes” in central bank policy while emphasizing he would maintain its independence. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,064.05, the Nasdaq dropped 0.6% to 24,259.96, and the Dow Jones declined 0.6% to 49,149.60.

 

 

In the Senate hearing, Warsh stressed that the Fed must remain independent, while also pushing for policy reforms and highlighting the need for a new inflation framework. He also referenced the impact of “policy mistakes” in 2021–2022.

 

 

On the geopolitical front, uncertainty increased over the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, which is nearing its expiration, compounded by the U.S. seizure of an Iranian ship that triggered retaliation threats from Tehran. Sentiment was initially positive but turned negative by midday.

 

 

 

• EUROPEAN MARKET :In Europe, stock markets were volatile on Tuesday, with investors cautious ahead of the potential end of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire. The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 0.9%, Germany’s DAX declined 0.5%, the UK’s FTSE 100 dropped 1.1%, and France’s CAC 40 also fell 1.1%. The two-week pause in conflict is set to end at an unspecified time later this week, with uncertainty over whether it will be extended.

 

 

 

• ASIAN MARKET : In Asia, stock markets were mixed. South Korean shares hit record highs on gains in semiconductor stocks, while overall sentiment remained cautious as investors monitored developments in the U.S.–Iran ceasefire.

 

 

South Korea’s KOSPI rose more than 2% to a record 6,361.17, supported by optimism around AI-related chip stocks. SK Hynix surged to new highs after announcing plans to produce next-generation memory for NVIDIA’s AI chips.

 

 

Japanese markets were also supported by technology stocks, with the Nikkei 225 rising 1.3% and TOPIX gaining 0.3%. Meanwhile, China’s Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 each fell 0.3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded relatively flat.

 

 

 

• COMMODITIES : U.S. crude oil prices rose in early Wednesday trading, despite Washington announcing an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, as uncertainty remained high and the Strait of Hormuz was still effectively closed. WTI crude briefly climbed to USD 90.70 per barrel and was up 59 cents (0.7%) at USD 90.26 as of 22:15 GMT. The benchmark contract had previously risen 2.8% on Tuesday

 

 

 

• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 0.46% in the red at 7,559.4, still facing resistance in the 7,600–7,700 range. The Indonesian market is starting to show resilience to U.S.–Iran geopolitical sentiment, with the IHSG reform agenda—highlighted by the HCL release—providing a positive catalyst. However, caution is still warranted due to potential volatility amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

 

 

Yesterday’s IHSG decline was driven by MSCI-related sentiment, as Indonesia has yet to receive a new rebalancing, along with declines in BREN and limit-down DSSA, which face potential outflows following the May 2026 update, where HCL-designated stocks will be removed from the MSCI Indonesia index. Nonetheless, despite geopolitical and MSCI pressures, the IHSG appears to be holding firm at support levels and is increasingly priced in.

 

 

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