Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street indexes fell sharply on Thursday amid renewed concerns over the inflationary impact of surging oil prices, as the U.S.–Israel war with Iran showed little sign of easing. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5% to 6,672.77, the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.8% to 22,311.98, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6% to 46,677.85.
The broad market decline followed a surge in oil prices, with Brent crude climbing back above USD 100 per barrel after Iran signaled it would continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for about one-fifth of global oil supply. Markets fear that higher oil prices could drive stronger inflation in the coming months, potentially delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Earlier, Donald Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates immediately instead of waiting for its next meeting. Meanwhile, the January PCE Price Index data will be released on Friday and will serve as the Fed’s key inflation gauge. Although closely watched, the data is unlikely to reflect energy-driven inflation from the Iran conflict.
According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing in a 98.3% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, with the central bank expected to remain on hold at least until September.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks edged lower on Thursday as oil prices briefly surged above USD 100 per barrel again amid ongoing shipping disruptions caused by the Iran war. The pan-European Stoxx 600 slipped 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 declined 0.7%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.2%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stock markets declined on Thursday after two days of gains, as oil prices surged back near USD 100 per barrel amid fresh supply disruptions caused by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Investors are concerned that persistently high oil prices could fuel inflation and complicate the outlook for central banks, which are already trying to balance inflation control with supporting economic growth. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 2%, while the broader TOPIX index slipped 1.6%. South Korea’s KOSPI also declined 1.1%.
• OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTION: Market sentiment was also pressured by the effective halt of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping lane surrounded by Iran on three sides. Container shipping companies, aiming to protect their crews and facing difficulties obtaining insurance, have almost completely stopped sailings through the narrow waterway, which handles about one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supply. “The Strait of Hormuz must remain closed,” Iran’s official news agency, the Islamic Republic News Agency, quoted the country’s new leader Mojtaba Khamenei as saying.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the Middle East war has created the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The IEA, which previously announced its largest-ever release of strategic oil reserves on Wednesday, also cut its annual oil supply outlook.
• COMMODITIES :
OIL : Oil prices surged on Thursday and once again surpassed USD 100 per barrel after Iran’s new leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned that the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global trade, would remain closed amid ongoing attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran.
Reuters reported that China has halted all exports of refined fuel in March to prevent a potential domestic fuel shortage caused by the Iran conflict. The move highlights the broad impact of the war, which is now affecting regions far beyond the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a 30-day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products that were already at sea before March 12, with the permit valid until April 11, in an effort to stabilize global energy markets.
PPRECIOUS METALS : Gold prices slipped on Thursday as rising oil prices triggered renewed inflation concerns and weighed on market sentiment. The Iran conflict also showed no signs of easing, with Iran reiterating that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed.
• INDONESIA : The JCI declined 0.37% to 7,362.1, tracking weakness in global markets and rising concerns over crude oil prices, which have climbed back to USD 100 per barrel. Investors are advised to remain cautious amid ongoing global tensions and highly volatile oil prices, and to adopt faster trading rhythms in line with market movements that resemble a “kangaroo market”.
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