XA Update Report | PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk. (SMDR) — In-line With Our Top-line Forecast, Bottom-line Pressured Lower Than Anticipated
By Ezaridho Ibnutama (Head of Research) & Graceline Melinda (associate)
17-Apr-2026
We maintain our BUY rating on SMDR with an upgraded TP of IDR 500 (Previously IDR 400) because of the geopolitical uncertainties primarily capitulated by the US-Iran-Israel conflict disrupting maritime traffic and causing rising shipping logistic fees. This event has offset the downward pull from global shipping oversupply. Moreover, as Trump’s tariff war has cooled down with the implementation of 15% Global Tariff and the agreement of US-Indonesia trade deal in early 2026, we are of the view these two factors has the potential to offset pressures from the hike in oil prices.
🔹 FY25 Top-Line Beat Estimates But Domestic Growth Swerving
• Revenue Above Our Forecasts From South-East Asian Nations. FY2025 top-line achieved USD 802 mn holding 101% run rate to our forecast target. This was pushed by contributions by Southeast Asian (SEA) nations (exc. Indonesia) growing 17% YoY to USD 265 mn, while the Middle East and India showed a steady recovery of shipment contract revenue by 8% YoY to USD 91 mn. Other Nations revenue segment grew 13% to USD 8 mn. Although contributing 55% to revenue, Indonesia had the lowest growth amongst all geographical segments with 5% YoY to USD 439 mn.
• Gross Margin Pressured Down From Port Costs. SMDR’s FY25 Gross Margin de-elevated to 18% from 20%. The expense pressure in 2025 was mainly from Shipping and Agency cost increasing by 15% to USD 524 mn.
• Bottom-line Faultering. Despite a lower FY25 NPM of 6.5% (from 6.9% in FY24), FY25 NP experienced major turnaround with a minor 2% growth compared to a -32.0% YoY decline in FY24. However, FY25 NP only breached 81% our forecasted run-rate in 2025.
🔹 Plans Moving Forward – Eyeing Growth In The Pacific
• Erecting Stations In Japan As Diversification. Samudera Japan K.K. and Imoto Corporation formed a new Joint Venture (JV) called Blue Ocean Shipping Co. Ltd (BOS). The company is focusing to capture more contract logistics revenue locally within Japan as a diversification against global geopolitical uncertainties. To support its operations, BOS has acquired two shipping vessels from Imoto Lines on March 17, 2026—MV Sagami and MV Hyogo.
• Strengthening Global Connectivity With PGT. On Mar-2026 in Patimban Global Gateway Terminal (PGT) , the company serviced first call ship MSC Hanisha III with the capacity of 2.500 TEUs for the Shanghai-Patimban route. SMDR is optimistic the additional activities in the Patimban port can increase service revenue by its armada for the Singapore-Patimban route.
🔹 Maintaining BUY Recommendation with Upgraded TP at IDR 500 /Share
• We maintain our BUY rating on SMDR with an upgraded TP of IDR 500 (Previously IDR 400). because of the geopolitical uncertainties primarily capitulated by the US-Iran-Israel conflict disrupting maritime traffic and causing rising shipping logistic fees. This event has offset the downward pull from global shipping oversupply. Moreover, as Trump’s tariff war has cooled down with the implementation of 15% Global Tariff and the agreement of US-Indonesia trade deal in early 2026, we are of the view these two factors has the potential to offset pressures from the hike in oil prices. Currently, the company is trading at 6.91x P/E which is +1 std dev to its 3-Year Average P/E. We also favor the company’s geographical diversification strategy into Japan as a hedge against the dominant contributions from the Middle East and Indosphere.
• Risks : (1) Prolonged Closure For Strait of Hormuz; (2) Rising Fuel Prices Placing Pressure On Operational Expenses; and (3) Vulnerability In Domestic Shipments From Macroeconomic Slowdown
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NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id
