US inflation is flattening. The high base of inflation in 2021 and the disinflation of several goods and services suppressed the US Headline Inflation in Oct. down to 7.7% YoY. According to CME Fed Watch, this occurrence drives the probability of an increase in the Dec. FFR of just +50Bps, up from 52% to 85%. Fed Pivot expectations in Dec. also supported by the depressed labor data, as US Initial Jobless Claims rise by 3% a week. The Fed Pivot sentiment also boosted a number of commodities, such as oil and gold, along with pressure on the DXY. The rise in oil prices amid the European Union’s ban on Russian oil and speculation of China’s loosen Zero-Covid Policy. On the domestic side, the low base sustained Indonesia’s GDP in 3Q22, which grew 5.72% YoY, higher than the low base of 3Q21, which only grew 3.51% YoY. Indonesia’s 3Q22 economy was also sustained by public consumption and the increase in mobility.

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