Wait and See, welcoming the month of Window Dressing. The lack of sentiment in economic data last week, domestically and globally, led investors to immediately anticipate manufacturing and inflation data in November, which was released Thursday. The data shows that Indonesia’s PMI Manufacturing is approaching contraction, indicating that the increase in BI 7DRR +175Bps YtD impacted domestic consumption. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Headline Inflation in Nov. was maintained at 5.42% YoY (Vs. Oct. 5.71%) amidst high global inflation pressure.
AGII: Profit Contracted by 59%. PT Aneka Gas Industri Tbk (AGII) recorded a profit for the current period attributable to owners of the parent entity that amounted to IDR70.38 billion or decreased by 59.20% YoY. Sales also fell to DIR1.90 trillion from the previous IDR2.07 trillion, with the cost of sold at IDR1.05 trillion and gross profit at IDR852.40 billion. (Emiten News)
People’s Business Credit (KUR) Budget Increases to IDR450 Trillion. The government will increase the subsidy budget for the distribution of people’s business credit (KUR) to IDR450 in 2023. The budget increased from the fund in The National Economic Recovery Program in 2022, only IDR373.17 trillion. The government has conveyed several adjustments to the KUR policy for debtors who faced a relaxation throughout the Covid-19 pandemic.
Investors are watching the release of Indonesia’s Nov. Foreign Exchange Reserves and Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The Foreign Exchange Reserves are projected to remain maintained, supported by Foreign Inflow in the Government Securities (SBN) market. This situation is in line with the Fed’s Dovish speculation, making the Government Bonds (SUN) and Government Islamic Securities (SBSN) yields seen as attractive, suppressing FR91 yields below the 7% level. Additionally, the CCI remains optimistic, projected to stay at a high level, supported by the Middle to Up segment purchasing power. Moreover, investors are also looking forward to the release of economic data on Indonesia’s two main trading partners, China and the US. However, China’s Export and Imports in Nov. are projected to weaken significantly, as the re-implement of the Zero-Covid Policy. In the meantime, the release of US Factory and Durable Goods Orders data in Oct. indicates how strong US manufacturing is amid an era of high inflation and interest rates. In other data, the PPI and 1-Yr Inflation in the US is projected to decline again. Crude oil prices and related sectors this week will be affected by the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting and also the start of the EU ban on Russian crude oil.
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