Today’s Outlook:
US MARKETS: The fears of a continued Fed rate hike and US government shutdown still haunted market sentiment. However, recent update says that the US Congress passed a stopgap funding bill late on Saturday with overwhelming Democratic support after Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy backed down from an earlier demand by his party’s hardliners for a partisan bill; thereby averting a last-minute shutdown of the US government.

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s favorite gauge of Inflation, managed to flatten to 0.1% from 0.2%; fostering investor optimism that the wave of Inflationary pressures is under control, and thus the Fed could be nearing the end of their interest rate hike trend. Eventually, this will bring down US Treasury yields which have skyrocketed 20% in the third quarter, after dropping around 4% in early July.

ASIA MARKETS: Indonesia will look forward to Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Sept.) and Inflation (Sept.) data today. While a series of important data will also emerge from South Korea (Export & Import, Trade Balance for September), China (PMI for September), Japan (Tankan Manufacutirng Outlook Index for 3rd quarter  yesterday).  

Corporate News
Grup Sinarmas (SMAR) Siap Lunasi Obligasi Jatuh Tempo IDR 280 Miliar Emiten perkebunan sawit milik Grup Sinarmas, PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk. (SMAR) menyampaikan kesiapan perseroan untuk melunasi obligasi yang akan segera jatuh tempo pada Oktober 2023. Wakil Direktur Utama SMAR Jimmy Pramono mengatakan perseroan telah mempersiapkan dana pembayaran pokok Obligasi berkelanjutan II SMART Tahap II Tahun 2020 Seri B yang akan jatuh tempo pada 22 Oktober 2023 sebesar IDR 280 miliar. Selain itu, dia mengatakan salah satu sumber dana perseroan untuk melunasi obligasi yang akan segera jatuh tempo tersebut karena SMAR memiliki fasilitas kredit dari beberapa bank yang belum dipergunakan. (Bisnis)

Domestic Issue
The Results of Private Placement Transaction of SUN during PPS, Friday (29/9) The Ministry of Finance carried out transactions in the issuance of Government Bonds (SUN) through Private Placement in the context of Placement of Funds for the Taxpayer Voluntary Disclosure Program. The Directorate of Government Debt  Securities, Directorate General of Financing and Risk Management, Ministry of Finance, in its statement said that the amount of SUN transacted was IDR  677,809,000,000 and USD 3,017,000, whose transactions were carried out on September 25, 2023. The FR0099 series, which is a SUN denominated in rupiah, provides a coupon of 6.40% with a yield of 6.45% and has a maturity date of January 15, 2029. Meanwhile, the USDFR0003 series which is denominated in US dollars provides a coupon of 3.00% and a yield of 5.30%, has a maturity date of January 15, 2032. (Emiten News)

US10YT is still stuck at 16-year highs, although approaching the upper channel resistance area 4.69% – 4.70% but still orderly moving above MA10 (= signaling the Uptrend is still strong). ADVISE: let your profit run, but don’t forget to set your Trailing Stop. Support: MA10 / 4.541%

ID10YT continues to climb after successfully breaking the upper channel resistance – uptrend, even now it has broken the psychological level of 7.0% yield. It seems not impossible that ID10YT is heading towards the 7.085% TARGET of the previous PARALLEL CHANNEL pattern. ADVISE: let your profit run; don’t forget to set your TRAILING STOP. As long as the yield is still above the MA10 (Support yield 6.845%) = there is no urgency to SELL.

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