Today’s Outlook:
US MARKETS: The U.S. dollar slid against most major currencies, weighed down by expectations that the Federal Reserve is done cutting interest rates and could start cutting them by the first half of next year.

In U.S. Treasuries, benchmark 10-year notes fell steadily during the day and were last down 9.9 basis points to 4.385%, from 4.484% late on Friday. Investors were also looking ahead to Thursday’s release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation or PCE index and euro zone consumer inflation figures, to potentially give markets direction.

Meanwhile, the latest economic data showed that Building Permits were slightly above expectations, while New Home Sales aka new family home sales in the US fell more than expected in October, likely as higher mortgage rates reduced affordability, but the housing segment remains supported by a shortage of previously owned properties on the market.

EUROPE MARKETS: From Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the European Central Bank’s fight to contain price growth was not yet done as wage growth was still strong and the outlook was uncertain, but she did point to easing euro zone inflation pressure.

ASIA MARKETS: Indonesia recorded money supply growth of 3.4% YoY in Oct, compared to 6% in the previous month. Japan will soon announce Bank Of Japan Core CPI which is expected to stabilize at 3.4% YoY.

COMMODITIES: Oil prices also fell, with the Brent settling under $80 a barrel, as investors awaited this week’s OPEC+ meeting and expected curbs on supplies into 2024. In precious metals, gold hit a six-month high with a boost from the softer dollar and expectations of a pause in the Fed’s monetary policy.

Corporate News
Professional Investors, Check out the Detailed Schedule of IIF Perpetual Bond with 7.25%-8.25% Yield PT Indonesia Infrastructure Finance (IIF) officially started the public offering of Indonesia Infrastructure Finance’s Environmental Securities in 2023. The securities offered are perpetual type. In the prospectus published on Bisnis Indonesia yesterday, Monday (27/11/2023), IIF Perpetual Bond is offered in a maximum amount of IDR 500 billion. These bonds offer a fixed yield of 7.25%-8.25%. “The return on Perpetual Securities is paid every semester (6 months) from the date of issuance,” the announcement reads. In the issuance of this perpetual bond, IIF received an AA rating by PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo). (Bisnis)

Domestic Issue
Sri Mulyani Reduces Debt Drawdown, to IDR 203.6 Trillion as of October 2023 The Ministry of Finance noted that the realization of financing through debt issuance reached IDR 203.6 trillion until October 2023. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said that the realization was much lower than the initial target of IDR 696.3 trillion. Compared to the realization as of October 2022 which reached IDR 507.3 trillion, the realization of debt financing this year is also much lower, or has decreased by 59.9%. If detailed, Sri Mulyani said that the realization of SBN issuance until October 2023 had only reached IDR 185.4 trillion, from the APBN target of IDR 712.9 trillion. Meanwhile, in terms of foreign loans, the realization until October 2023 was recorded at IDR 18.2 trillion, up 159.7% from last year’s realization of IDR 7.0 trillion. She said that government debt management until October 2023 will continue to be well-maintained and carried out prudently, especially in anticipation of the phenomenon of higher for longer, where global benchmark interest rates are expected to remain high for a longer period of time. (Bisnis)

US10YT is on an undeniable downtrend, unable to pass MA20 Resistance at a 4.512% yield and has now turned around to break below MA10 Support / 4.439% yield. ADVISE: HOLD, wait for yield bottoming first; BUY ON WEAKNESS.

ID10YT closing slightly above MA10 Resistance, making 6.712% yield as the closest Support at the moment. It is considered that the technical rebound is still limited, but it has not eliminated the threat of further decline towards the bottom target of 6.465% yield; a number of Moving Average Resistance is blocking the yield from 6.783% to 6.886% then continued the previous High level at a yield of 6.95%-7.0%. ADVISE: HOLD; wait for solid bottoming.

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