Today’s Outlook:
US MARKET SENTIMENT: December S&P 500 Global US Manufacturing PMI, December S&P Global Services PMI
ASIA MARKETS: Beijing’s affirmation of its recent policy shifts and plans to boost growth, following a high-profile meeting Thursday, appeared to have fallen short of investors’ expectations. Most other Asia-Pacific markets also fell, tracking Wall Street declines following a hotter-than-expected producer price inflation reading.
EUROPE MARKETS: European markets closed lower Friday as investors reacted to disappointing data prints from two of the region’s largest economies. The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally closed 0.62% lower, also recording a weekly loss after three weeks in the green. Friday’s downbeat mood followed unexpected declines in both U.K. GDP and key export data from Germany. The U.K. economy contracted by an estimated 0.1% on a monthly basis, the ONS said Friday, with officials attributing the downturn to a decline in production output. Economists polled by news agency Reuters had projected a 0.1% rise in GDP in October.
CURRENCY & FIXED INCOME: The dollar index, which measures the currency against six others, was up 0.037% at 107, set for a weekly gain of nearly 1%, its biggest in a month. The dollar headed for its best weekly performance in a month on Friday, as investors priced in the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates more slowly next year, while sterling fell after a surprise contraction in UK economic activity.
– The U.S. currency rose against the yen after reports that the Bank of Japan could forgo a rate hike at its meeting next week. The dollar rose 0.69% to 153.695 yen , its highest since late November. The yen has been the worst performer this week against the dollar, which has gained 2% on the Japanese currency.
– The euro pared earlier losses against the dollar and rose 0.26% to USD1.04945. The European Central Bank on Thursday cut rates by 25 basis points and kept the door open to further easing.
COMMODITIES: Oil prices climbed about 2% on Friday to settle at a three-week high, on expectations that additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could tighten supplies and that lower interest rates in Europe and the U.S. could boost fuel demand. Brent futures rose USD1.08, or 1.5%, to settle at USD74.49 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose USD1.27, or 1.8%, to settle at USD71.29. That was Brent’s highest close since Nov. 22 and put the contract up 5% for the week. WTI posted a 6% gain for the week and closed at its highest since Nov. 7. European Union ambassadors agreed to impose a 15th package of sanctions on Russia this week over its war against Ukraine, targeting its shadow tanker fleet. The U.S. is considering similar moves.
– Gold prices fell on Friday after bullion hit a more than five-week high in the previous session and as the U.S. dollar gained, but prices were on track for a weekly rise on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Spot gold was down 1.1% at USD2,652.29 per ounce, as the U.S. dollar was steady at its highest in more than two weeks. Bullion hit its highest since Nov. 6 on Thursday, and has risen over 0.8% so far for the week. Underpinned by easing monetary policies, robust central bank buying, and safe-haven demand, gold has shattered multiple record peaks this year.
Domestic Issue
Multifinance Bond Issuance Reaches IDR 30.52 Trillion, Here’s the Prospect in 2025
PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) stated that until November 2024, the issuance of debt securities or bonds by the financing company industry or multifinance has reached IDR 30.52 trillion. Head of the Economic Research Division of Pefindo Suhindarto explained that for the trend itself, this year the issuance value from the multifinance sector is relatively lower compared to last year. Where, as of the end of November 2024, issuance from the multifinance sector was IDR 30.52 trillion, which was relatively lower compared to 2023, which could reach around IDR 32 trillion. “Indeed, in December 2024, based on our monitoring there will be 1 more multifinance company that will issue, but the value will not make the total higher than last year,” said Suhindarto when contacted by Kontan, Friday (13/12). However, he said that the multifinance sector is still the sector that issues the largest corporate debt this year. Which distribution reaches 23.4% of the total issuance nationally. Suhindarto explained that the relatively lower issuance of corporate debt this year was due to several things, the first is that interest rates are still relatively high, and the second is the prospect of demand which is still depressed. According to him, these two factors are the main factors that ultimately make the financing needs of the multifinance sector not as large as last year. He said that the decrease in the benchmark interest rate in September 2024 only made the benchmark interest rate at the same level as at the beginning of the year, namely at 6%, which is higher than in 2023. Meanwhile, Suhindarto predicted that the prospect of debt issuance from the multifinance sector will be in good condition in 2025. For this reason, Pefindo hopes that debt issuance from the multifinance sector will be greater next year. (Emiten News)
Corporate News
ZINC: Kapuas Prima Reveals Payment of Bond Debt, This is the Value
PT Kapuas Prima Coal Tbk (ZINC) reported that it has made the 10th amortization payment for Bond I Year 2018 Series E on Thursday, December 14, 2024. The payment was made to the account of PT Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia (KSEI) with a value of IDR 1.66 billion. ZINC President Director, Harjanto Widjaja, in his statement, explained that this payment is part of the company’s obligations for bonds issued on December 26, 2018. The bonds have a principal value of IDR 14.99 billion, with an interest rate of 17.8% per annum, and are scheduled to mature on August 13, 2025. This step was taken to demonstrate the company’s commitment to fulfilling its obligations on time and maintaining its credibility in the financial market. (Emiten News)
Recommendation
US10YT continued its rebound back above its resistance of 4.183%. It is approaching dynamic resistance MA50 of 4.286-4.292%, and NHKSI is of the opinion it will reverse its current uptrend and is projected to reach the support range of 4.13-4.116%.
ID10YT has broken above and re-entried into its rising wedge pattern resistance of 6.925-7.080%. Therefore, we anticipate a swift correction downward to the targeted support of 6.519%.
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