Today’s Outlook:
US MARKET: A stronger-than-expected labor report added to optimism that the US economy will avoid a recession amid speculation of an interest rate cut in the first quarter of next year.

Nonfarm payrolls last month increased by 199,000 jobs after rising by 150,000 in October, according to data from the US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Statistics. Average hourly earnings, a key gauge of wage growth, rose at a monthly pace of 0.4% compared to October, an increase from the previous figure of 0.2% and faster than the prediction of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in the world’s largest economy unexpectedly fell to 3.7%.

The rise in wage growth, which risks increasing inflation, slightly confounded rate cut optimism, pushing Treasury yields higher. The probability of a rate cut in early March fell to 44.3% from 54.3%; the University of Michigan survey showed inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 3.1% in December from 4.5% last month.

COMMODITIES: Oil prices rallied on Friday, as a stronger jobs report boosted optimism about a US soft landing, but it was not enough to prevent a seventh straight week of declines as concerns about a global supply surplus kept prices from losing competitiveness. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose 2.7% and closed at USD71.23 per barrel. Brent crude futures expiring in February rose 2.4% to USD75.81 per barrel. However, both contracts ended the week around 4% lower. Oil prices pushed higher on Friday thanks to a stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report adding to optimism that the US will avoid a recession, supporting the outlook for sluggish Crude demand.

Corporate News
Ketrosden Triasmitra (KETR) Prepares IDR 415 M Bond Payment Funds PT Ketrosden Triasmitra Tbk (KETR) has prepared funds for the principal payment of its 2020 Series A Bonds, which will mature on January 8, 2024. Videy Octory, finance director of KETR, in a written statement on Friday (8/12) said that KETR has prepared funds of IDR 415 billion for the principal payment of the bonds. Videy added that the bond funds will be paid to PT Kustodian Sentral Efek (KSEI) according to a predetermined schedule. (Emiten News)

Domestic Issue
Issuance of Bonds and Sukuk on the IDX Reaches IDR 117.8 Trillion by the End of 2023 The bond and sukuk issuance industry on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) continues to show significant growth. Until the end of 2023, the value of funds raised from debt securities reached an impressive figure, namely IDR 117.8 trillion. This achievement cannot be separated from the contribution of 57 debt securities issuers by issuing 107 emissions. This number has the potential to increase, considering that there are still 11 issuers waiting to be listed in the listing pipeline. According to IDX Director of Corporate Valuation, I Gede Nyoman Yetna, as of December 8, 2023, there were 17 emissions from 11 EBUS issuers in the pipeline. Most of the prospective issuers come from the consumer sector (6 companies), followed by the raw materials sector (3 companies). The IDX noted that the total issuance of bonds and sukuk listed on the exchange reached 542 emissions, with an outstanding nominal value of IDR 462.74 trillion and USD 72,987 million, issued by 128 issuers. In addition, Government Securities (SBN) also listed their existence on the IDX with a total of 191 series, having a nominal value of IDR 5,536.74 trillion and USD 486.11 million. While Asset-Backed Securities (EBA) were recorded as many as 10 emissions, with a value of IDR 3.38 trillion. (Berita Satu)

US10YT has not been able to break the first resistance: MA10 at 4.243% yeld after rebounding on Support from previous Low level: 4.098% – 4.060%. Please beware that the trend is still down (within the PARALLEL CHANNEL pattern), so it should definitely respect the nearest Resistance: MA10, followed by MA20 plus upper channel in the range of: 4.305% – 4.350%. ADVISE: HOLD; AVERAGE UP ACCORDINGLY.

ID10YT seems to be holding above the short-term trendline support around 6.57% yield, on its way down towards the target bottom at 6.465% yield. There has been no breakout above MA10 & MA20 Resistance (range: 6.627% – 6.678%) which would be the first sign of recovery from this downtrend, hence its status is still highly speculative. ADVISE: HOLD; WAIT & SEE.

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