XA Update Report | PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk. (PANI) – Stellar Quarter Despite Challenges
By Axell Ebenhaezer ( Senior Research Analyst)
8-June-2026
PANI delivered exceptional results in the first quarter of 2026, with revenue climbing 82% year-on-year to Rp 1.1 trillion, driven primarily by the handover of high-value commercial land plots in the CBD PIK 2 zone to strategic investors and commercial operators. This reflects a materially different product mix compared to 1Q25 which was dominated by residential units carrying lower unit revenues and margins. Net income also surged to Rp 578 billion, representing YoY growth of more than 1,000%, as net margin expanded to 52.5%. Key catalysts for this include a significant shift in revenue mix towards commercial land plots which carry substantially lower development costs relative to recognized sales prices, fixed administrative overheads spread over a larger revenue base, and the maturation of PANI’s cost structure as the township reaches greater scale and efficiency.
🔹 Marketing sales in-line with expectations
• Marketing pre-sales of Rp 987 billion in 1Q26 represent a 112% year-on-year increase over the Rp 466 billion reported in 1Q25, and already account for 23% of management’s full-year 2026 target of Rp 4.3 trillion.
• While management has adopted a conservative stance on the annual target — reflecting awareness of elevated global geopolitical uncertainty and domestic macro headwinds — the Q1 run rate suggests meaningful potential for upward revision in subsequent quarters.
• The segment breakdown also reveals broad-based strength. Residential pre-sales contributed Rp 461 billion, a 227% YoY surge, as multiple residential launches across product tiers attracted strong end-user & investor demand. High-quality products such as Pasir Putih Residences, Padma, & Bukit Nirmala continue to resonate with PIK 2’s target market of premium homebuyers.
• Commercial land plot pre-sales reached Rp 425 billion (+84% YoY), reflecting sustained appetite from business operators & investors seeking to secure strategic locations within the CBD PIK 2 precinct. Commercial product sales also contributed to the mix, supported by growing business formation within the PIK 2 ecosystem.
🔹 Future performance expected to remain stable despite weak property sector
• Property sector fundamentals remain bifurcated. The premium and mid-to-upper residential segments continue to demonstrate resilience, supported by wealthy domestic buyers, foreign interest (accelerated by government policy allowing foreigners to hold apartment ownership titles under Government Regulation No. 18/2021), and the growing aspiration class of Indonesian professionals seeking integrated living environments.
• In contrast, demand in the mid-to-low segment remains structurally constrained by weak real wage growth, elevated mortgage rates, and slow affordability improvement.
• We project aggregate industry pre-sales to grow by approximately 2% in 2026, underpinned by residential launches from established Jabodetabek developers — a conservative projection that PANI is well positioned to significantly outperform given its land bank, launch pipeline, and premium positioning.
• An important near-term policy tailwind: the government has signaled intent to extend the 100% VAT subsidy on residential properties through December 2027, covering landed houses priced up to Rp 5 billion with a subsidy cap of Rp 2 billion. While primarily benefiting the affordable and mid-tier segments, the broader positive regulatory environment is credit positive for sector sentiment. For PANI specifically, the company’s premium product portfolio is less reliant on VAT incentives and more leveraged to infrastructure completions and lifestyle desirability of the PIK 2 precinct.
• Looking ahead to Q2-Q4 2026, we anticipate PANI to experience an acceleration in residential pre-sales as new product phases are launched across multiple clusters, commercial land demand to remain solid from operators drawn to PIK 2’s CBD proposition, a growing NICE-related lease and hospitality revenues resulting in stronger recurring income stream, and an improvement in recognized revenue as units booked in earlier quarters reach handover milestones.
🔹 BUY recommendation with a TP of Rp 9,200
• We maintain our BUY rating with an adjusted TP of Rp 9,200. This accounts for our conservative outlook on the Indonesian equity market, attributable primarily to domestic fiscal policies & foreign downgrade risk.
• Our valuation applies a 60% discount to the company’s RNAV which we deem to be fair given PIK 2’s strategic location, infrastructure connectivity, and scarcity of comparable integrated coastal townships in Indonesia. If anything, the RNAV of PANI’s 1,855-hectare land bank — acquired at significantly below current market prices — substantially exceeds the book value, providing a meaningful floor to the investment thesis.• Risks: 1) Interest rate hikes 2) Marketing sales execution risk 3) Building material cost increase
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NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id
