Today’s Outlook:

Stocks managed to rise Friday to wrap up a volatile week and a losing month for the major averages. Friday’s trading session saw a brief pullback after President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy clashed in the Oval Office, which raised concerns about heightened geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the Dow has managed to outperform, rising about 1% in the week. Month to date, however, the 30-stock index has dropped 1.6%. The major benchmarks turned negative for a short period on Friday after Trump, along with Vice President JD Vance, argued with Zelenskyy during an extraordinary moment in front of the media at the White House. The leaders met Friday regarding a possible Ukraine mineral rights deal for the U.S., which investors hoped would be a precursor to eventually bringing about an end to the war with Russia.

MARKET SENTIMENT : The US will be releasing February’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices. US’ February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will also come out as well. On the other side of the pond, the Eurozone’s CPI inflation number will be posted on Monday.

FIXED INCOME & CURRENCY : U.S. Treasury prices jumped Friday after a spat between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy raised concern over growing geopolitical tensions. The benchmark 10-year yield Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.222%. The 2-year Treasury yield was down more than 8 basis points at 3.995%. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. The dollar index rose 0.23% to 107.61. The U.S. dollar initially edged lower on Friday after a reading on inflation was largely as anticipated by investors while consumer spending unexpectedly fell. For the week, the dollar is up about 0.9% but down 0.8% for February, poised for its largest monthly decline since September.

EUROPE : European markets closed mixed on Friday, but notched a tenth straight week of gains despite uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index pulled back from earlier losses to close fractionally above the flatline. The global tech bellweather rebounded Friday as investors continued to assess its quarterly earnings report. Trump earlier this week threatened to impose 25% duties on imports from the EU, saying the tariffs would be announced “very soon” and apply to “cars and all other things.”

– The euro slumped after the meeting and was last down 0.29% at $1.0367 after dropping to $1.0359, its lowest since February 12. The euro dropped on Friday, after a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump went up in flames, dashing hopes any peace deal could be reached soon in the war with Russia. Sterling weakened 0.23% to $1.2568.

ASIA : Asia-Pacific markets fell on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will be going ahead and taking effect next week. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 1.16% lower to close at 8,172.4. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 2.88% to close at 37,155.5 and the Topix lost 1.98% to close at 2,682.09. South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.39% to close at 2,532.78 while the small-cap Kosdaq traded 3.49% lower to close at 743.96. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 3.55%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 1.97% to end the trading day at 3,890.05. Indian stocks were also in negative territory, with the Nifty 50 down 0.99%. The price of Bitcoin fell 1.79% to $82,811.12, marking an almost 25% decline from its record high in January.

– Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.53% to 150.59 but has fallen nearly 3% for the month as investors largely expect the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates this year.

COMMODITIES : OIL prices fell about 1% on Friday, posting their first monthly drop since November, as markets braced for Washington’s new tariffs and Iraq’s decision to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan region. Uncertainty surrounding OPEC’s production resumption plans in April and ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine also weighed on investor sentiment. The more active May Brent crude futures fell 86 cents, or 1.16%, to close at $73.18 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $69.76 a barrel, down 59 cents, or 0.84%. Baghdad is set to announce the resumption of oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, according to an Iraqi oil ministry statement. Iraq will export 185,000 barrels per day through state oil marketer SOMO, and that quantity will gradually increase, the ministry said. GOLD prices fell over 1% on Friday as the dollar held close to two-week highs after U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations, suggesting the Federal Reserve may adopt a cautious stance on additional rate cuts. Spot gold was 1% down at $2,846.96 an ounce. Bullion has so far lost 3% for the week, its steepest weekly fall since November. U.S. gold futures were 1.3% down at $2,858.90. The dollar index was set for a weekly gain, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

GlobalNews
UK, European Leaders Join Forces to Draft Ukraine Peace Plan to Take to US
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Sunday European leaders had agreed to draw up a Ukraine peace plan to take to the United States, a vital step for Washington to be able to offer security guarantees Kyiv says are vital to deter Russia. At a summit in London just two days after Volodymyr Zelenskiy clashed with U.S. President Donald Trump and cut short a visit to Washington, world leaders offered a strong show of support to the Ukrainian president and promised to do more to help his nation. European leaders agreed they must spend more on defence to show Trump the continent can protect itself. And the European Commission chief, with many EU nations struggling with already stretched public finances, suggested the bloc could ease its rules that limit debt levels. Starmer, who welcomed a visibly shaken Zelenskiy on Saturday with a warm hug, said Britain, Ukraine, France and some other nations would form a “coalition of the willing” and draw up a peace plan to take to Trump. He did not name other nations, but said more countries were willing to join. (Reuters)

Corporate News
Merdeka Copper Pays Off Maturity Bonds of IDR 764.95 billion
PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk. (MDKA) paid off the principal and interest of the four sustainable bonds IV Merdeka Copper Gold Phase V Year 2024 series A. The total principal repayment and interest payments on the four bonds amounted to IDR 764.95 billion. MDKA Corporate Secretary Adi Adriansyah Sjoekri said the source of funding used to pay off the principal and interest on the four bonds came from funds obtained through the issuance of sustainable bonds V MDKA Phase II 2025. Apart from that, the company also used internal cash. “By paying off the principal and paying interest on the four bonds, all of the company’s obligations on the bonds have ended,” said Adi through an information disclosure, Sunday (2/3/2025). The total bonds which mature on March 2 2025 consist of bond principal amounting to IDR 750 billion and interest on the four bonds amounting to IDR 14.95 billion. (Business)

Recommendation

US10YT continued its correction by 1.48% to 4.203% which is below the dynamic support MA200 @ 4.245%. America’s benchmark bond yield reverted from its previous uptrend into a downtrend as DOGE makes more significant cuts to US Government bureaucracy, making waves of confidence from investors.Wait for developments from the US market regarding Trump’s Tariff policy to determine where the yield will move.

ID10YT was stable at 0.06% to 6.925 after touching dynamic resistance MA50 @ 7.003%. It has broken above the resistance of 6.898%, and the next resistance to be tested is 7.022%. It is believed most investors are worried of the implications from the launching for Indonesia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Danantara.

Download full report HERE.