PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk. (INDF) : Broad-Based Growth, Diversified Mix Cushions the Forex Drag

 

by Fadly Rafiudin (Equity Research Analyst)

5 Nov 2026

 

INDF posted a solid 9M26, with revenue up +12% YoY to IDR 101.5 tn, as 3Q26 accelerated to +16% YoY (+14% QoQ) on double-digit growth in CBP, Bogasari and Distribution. EBIT rose +15% YoY to IDR 20.8 tn, with CBP remaining the largest contributor while Agribusiness delivered the strongest EBIT growth at +27%. Net profit, however, was flat at IDR 7.9 tn as net forex losses widened to IDR 3.8 tn (vs. IDR 1.6 tn in 9M25), though core profit grew a solid +11% YoY to IDR 9.4 tn. We raise our FY26F revenue forecast to IDR 136.2 tn and our net profit forecast to IDR 11.1 tn. We upgrade INDF to “Buy” from “Overweight” with an unchanged TP of IDR 7,750/share, implying 17.4% upside.

 

 

🔹 3Q26 & 9M26 Financial Performance

Solid revenue delivery across segments. 9M26 revenue grew +12% YoY to IDR 101.5 tn, reaching 78% of our previous FY26 forecast of IDR 130.3 tn. Growth gained pace in 3Q26, with revenue up +16% YoY (+14% QoQ) to IDR 36.0 tn. CBP led the way (+20% YoY in 3Q26), followed by Distribution (+14%), Bogasari (+13%) and Agribusiness grew +9% YoY, rebounded +27% QoQ.

 

CBP anchors earnings, Agribusiness adds momentum. CBP revenue rose +14% YoY to IDR 64.3 tn and remained the backbone of the group, contributing 68% of segment EBIT. Its EBIT grew +6% YoY to IDR 12.5 tn, although 9M26 margin narrowed to 19.5% (vs. 21.0% in 9M25) on higher input costs. Agribusiness was the standout, with EBIT up +27% YoY to IDR 3.4 tn (margin 22.0% in 9M26 vs. 18.2% in 9M25) on a higher CPO ASP of IDR 14,902/kg (vs. IDR 14,118/kg in 9M25) and CPO production up +13% YoY. Distribution EBIT rose +20% YoY (margin 9.2% vs. 8.2% in 9M25). Bogasari was the soft spot, despite +11% YoY revenue growth, EBIT was flat at IDR 2.0 tn as margin eased to 8.0% (vs. 8.8% in 9M25).

 

EBIT growth outpaced the segments. 9M26 GPM eased to 32.9% (vs. 33.3% in 9M25), but OPM improved to 20.5% (vs. 19.9% in 9M25), lifting EBIT +15% YoY to IDR 20.8 tn, ahead of segment EBIT growth of +9% YoY. The gap came from higher unallocated other operating income of IDR 2.3 tn (vs. IDR 1.1 tn in 9M25) , including operating forex gains and one-off items such as asset disposal gains.

 

 

Core profit resilient despite a flat bottom line. Net forex losses from financing activities rose to IDR 3.8 tn (vs. IDR 1.6 tn in 9M25), largely from the revaluation of ICBP’s USD bonds, keeping 9M26 net profit flat YoY at IDR 7.9 tn. With a smaller forex loss in 3Q26, quarterly net profit recovered to IDR 3.1 tn (+54% YoY, +78% QoQ). Excluding forex, core profit grew +11% YoY to IDR 9.4 tn, accelerating from +7% YoY in 1H26.

 

 

🔹 Upgrading Top-Line Outlook, Financing Costs Temper Earnings Upside

 

9M26 ran ahead of our forecast, prompting an upward revision. With 9M26 revenue reaching 78% of our previous FY26 forecast, we raise our FY26 revenue forecast to IDR 136.2 tn (+10% YoY), from IDR 130.3 tn in our previous forecast. This reflects solid 9M26 performance, with revenue up +12% YoY, supported in part by robust CBP growth of +14% YoY, as we expect growth to continue across all business segments in 4Q26. Our FY26 net profit forecast edges up to IDR 11.1 tn (+4% YoY), from IDR 11.0 tn in our previous forecast, as part of the revenue upside is absorbed by higher financing costs following increased Rupiah borrowings.

 

 

Commodity prices cut both ways. Global CPO prices at around MYR 4,500/ton should keep Agribusiness margins elevated into 4Q26, supported by higher production. Conversely, wheat prices at USD 6.0/bushel, keeping pressure on margins at both Bogasari and CBP.

 

 

IDR remains the swing factor for the bottom line. With most of the group’s USD exposure sitting in ICBP’s bonds, IDR movements will continue to drive volatility in reported earnings. The IDR traded at IDR 18,150/USD in early November 2026 (vs. IDR 17,998/USD at end-September 2026), and further weakness would weigh on our forecast.

 

 

🔹 Upgrade to “Buy” with Target Price at IDR 7,750/Share

 

We upgrade INDF to “Buy” from “Overweight” with an unchanged TP of IDR 7,750/share, implying +17.4% upside. INDF’s diversified business continues to deliver, CBP drives the bulk of earnings, Agribusiness provides a natural offset when commodity prices rise, and the group keeps reducing its USD exposure.

 

 

Risks: (1) further IDR depreciation; (2) higher-than-anticipated wheat and other input costs; (3) a reversal in CPO prices; (4) weaker consumer purchasing power and intensifying competition.