XA Update Report | Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk. (PANI) – Stellar Performance Despite Challenging Headwinds

 

By Axell Ebenhaezer (Senior Research Analyst) & Kevin Pratama  (Research Associate)

30-Mar-2026

 

Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua (PANI) reported a substantial 83% YoY net profit increase to IDR 1.15 trillion for FY25, driven by handovers in the CBD PIK2 area. Top line saw a 52% YoY rise to IDR 4.32 trillion, mainly coming from the commercial land plot segment with 37% contribution (IDR 1.58 trillion). Commercial land plots being the primary revenue contributor also helped improve overall profit margins as land plots structurally carry higher margins. On the flip side, FY25 marketing sales dipped by 28% YoY to IDR 4.30 trillion, in-line with the revised company target, as soft demand due to rocky macro conditions stalled any growth prospects.

 

 

 

🔹 Optimism despite challenging circumstances

• The decline in FY25 marketing sales was caused by weak performance from the commercial segment, with commercial land plots declining by 58% YoY and commercial products falling by 8% YoY.

 

• An unstable domestic & global economic outlook lowered consumer confidence and has caused commercial activity to stagnate, putting the commercial real estate sector under pressure.

 

 

• However, we are cautiously optimistic that PANI’s FY25 commercial marketing sales decline is merely a short-term blip.

 

 

• The opening of the KATARAJA toll road has increased accessibility to the PIK2 area which could potentially boost traffic and promote more business activity. PANI’s new NICE convention center and the upcoming PIK2 Hilton Hotel will also contribute to a livelier CBD environment, on top of being excellent sources of recurring income.

 

 

• On the residential side, PANI marketing sales grew by 3% YoY in FY25 despite domestic oversupply and gloomy economic surroundings. This was to be expected since the company positions its products as premium areas catering to middle and high-income earners, whose purchasing power are far more resilient to economic turbulence.

 

 

 

 

🔹Remaining conservative as global instability rages

• The ongoing war in Iran is having widespread indirect effects on the economy, and we expect the real estate sector to be no exception.

 

 

• With the current gloomy outlook, we expect demand for real estate to remain soft for the foreseeable future as customers hold off large purchases.

 

 

• However, we do see PANI’s market positioning somewhat reducing the impact of low consumer confidence, and thus instead expect marketing sales to remain stagnant at IDR 4.3 trillion for FY26

 

 

🔹 BUY recommendation with a TP of IDR 11,500

 

• We give PANI a BUY rating with a TP of IDR 11,500. Building on our previous report, we have applied a larger 50% discount to NAV calculations for a more conservative valuation to better reflect recent market conditions. This TP implies a forward EV/EBITDA ratio of 94.9x and a PBV of 6.30x.

 

 

• Risks: 1) Falling consumer confidence 2) Government policy changes 3) Real estate oversupply

 

 

 

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NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id