XA Update Report | PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk. (CPIN) — Poultry Prices Begin to Hatch Recovery
By Steven Willie (Research Associate)
23-Feb-2026
CPIN delivered a stronger 3Q25 performance after softer conditions in 2Q25. Revenue increased +5% YoY (+14% QoQ) to IDR 17.54 tn, supported by a rebound in broiler prices, which rose +7.9% QoQ to IDR 22,685/kg (vs. IDR 21,021/kg in 2Q25). As a result, 9M25 revenue edged up +1.8% YoY to IDR 50.6 tn, reaching 72% of our FY25F forecast. In 3Q25, gross margin expanded to 19% (vs. 12% in 3Q24), operating margin increased to 13% (vs. 4% in 3Q24), and net margin rose to 8% (vs. 4% in 3Q24). Consequently, 3Q25 net profit rose +137% YoY (+303% QoQ) to IDR 1.47 tn. 9M25 net profit increased +41% YoY with NPM improving to 7% (vs. 5% in 9M24).
🔹 3Q25 & 9M25 Financial Performance
• Recovery Gradually Taking Shape. CPIN delivered a stronger 3Q25 performance after softer conditions in 2Q25. Revenue increased +5% YoY (+14% QoQ) to IDR 17.54 tn, supported by a rebound in broiler prices, which rose +7.9% QoQ to IDR 22,685/kg (vs. IDR 21,021/kg in 2Q25). As a result, 9M25 revenue edged up +1.8% YoY to IDR 50.6 tn, reaching 72% of our FY25F forecast.
• 3Q25 Revenue Rebound Across Key Segments, 9M25 Still Uneven. Feed revenue grew +4% QoQ, Broiler +10% QoQ, and DOC +30% QoQ, while Processed Chicken declined -2% QoQ and Others rose +5% QoQ. 9M25 revenue performance remained mixed reflecting weaker conditions in 1H25. Feed and Broiler declined -6% YoY and -3% YoY, respectively, while DOC and Others grew +3% YoY and +7% YoY. Processed Chicken revenue contracted -17% YoY.
• Margins Improved From The Low Base in 2Q25. In 3Q25, gross margin expanded to 19% (vs. 12% in 3Q24), operating margin increased to 13% (vs. 4% in 3Q24), and net margin rose to 8% (vs. 4% in 3Q24). The Improvement was primarily driven by higher selling prices.
• Easing 3Q25 Operating Expenses. Operational expenses shrunk by -18% YoY (+1% QoQ) spurred on by lower feed input costs. One of which is corn prices down by -11% QoQ to USD 402/bushels and soybean meal down -4% QoQ to USD 290/ton. Consequently, 3Q25 net profit rose +137% YoY (+303% QoQ) to IDR 1.47 tn. 9M25 net profit increased +41% YoY with NPM improving to 7% (vs. 5% in 9M24).
🔹 Industry Conditions Stabilizing into 4Q25
• After Bottoming in 2Q25, Poultry Prices Have Begun to Stabilize. The improvement reflects better industry coordination, particularly through DOC culling programs and tighter Grand Parent Stock (GPS) import controls aimed at limiting excessive DOC supply from flowing into the downstream broiler market. These measures have helped ease the oversupply conditions that pressured ASPs and margins during 1H25. As of 4Q25, average broiler prices increased 8% QoQ to IDR 24,421/kg (vs. IDR 22,685/kg in 3Q25). The sequential increase provides better earnings visibility compared to 1H25.
• Consistent Growth Alongside Higher Efficiency By End of FY25. We project 4Q25F revenue to grow +9% YoY (+10% QoQ) to IDR 19.93 tn, driven by firmer broiler and DOC prices. We expect FY25F gross margins to normalize at around 16% (vs 15% in FY24), reflecting a more balanced pricing environment while incorporating conservative assumptions on feed input costs. We maintain our FY25F revenue forecast of +4% YoY to IDR 69.97 tn. Net profit is projected to grow +7% YoY to IDR 3.99 tn, implying a stable FY25F net margin of 6%.
🔹 BUY Recommendation with Target Price at IDR 5,060/Share
• We are upgrading CPIN’s outlook to a BUY rating (Prev. OVERWEIGHT) with a maintained target price of IDR 5,060. The stock is currently trading at a discount in its -1 standard deviation of its 3-year historical P/E average. We also favor the stock due to its improving bottom-line efficiency.
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NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id
