XA Update Report | PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk. (CPIN) – Earnings Take Flight on Strong Poultry Prices

 

By Steven Willie  (Research Associate)

30-Mar-2026

 

CPIN delivered a solid FY25 performance, with revenue growing +5% YoY to IDR 70.7 tn. 4Q25 revenue rose +13% YoY (+15% QoQ) to IDR 20.1 tn. The feed segment revenue recorded a robust +15% YoY (+14% QoQ) increase, while DOC segment outperformed with +20% YoY (+30% QoQ) growth. The broiler segment remained flat with +0.04% YoY increase but rebounded +13% QoQ, reflecting improving broiler prices toward the end of FY25. Meanwhile, the processed chicken segment declined slightly by -1% YoY but improved sequentially +17% QoQ, while the others segment grew +16% YoY despite a -7% QoQ contraction. FY25 GPM increased to 18% (vs. 15% in FY24), while OPM improved to 12% (vs. 9% in FY24), supported by stronger profitability across the broiler, DOC, and processed chicken segments. Consequently, NPM rose to 8% (vs. 6% in FY24), translating into a +52% YoY surge in net profit to IDR 5.6 tn

 

 

 

🔹 FY25 & 4Q25 Financial Performance

• Resilient Topline Growth with Strong Year-End Momentum. CPIN delivered a solid FY25 performance, with revenue growing +5% YoY to IDR 70.7 tn, reaching 101% of our FY25 estimates. 4Q25 revenue rose +13% YoY (+15% QoQ) to IDR 20.1 tn, contributing 30% of FY25 revenue, supported by higher ASPs and stronger volumes.

 

 

• Feed Segment Leads Revenue Growth. The feed segment revenue recorded a robust +15% YoY (+14% QoQ) increase, while DOC segment outperformed with +20% YoY (+30% QoQ) growth. The broiler segment remained flat with +0.04% YoY increase but rebounded +13% QoQ, reflecting improving broiler prices toward the end of FY25. Meanwhile, the processed chicken segment declined slightly by -1% YoY but improved sequentially +17% QoQ, while the others segment grew +16% YoY despite a -7% QoQ contraction.

 

 

• Margin Expansion Accelerates in 4Q25. GPM expanded to 22% (vs. 19% in 3Q25 / 19% in 4Q24), while operating profit margin OPM rose to 16% (vs. 13% in 3Q25 / 13% in 4Q24). Net profit margin NPM also strengthened to 11% (vs. 8% in 3Q25 / 7% in 4Q24), driven by improved pricing and operating leverage.

 

 

• Full-Year Profitability Soaring High. FY25 GPM increased to 18% (vs. 15% in FY24), while OPM improved to 12% (vs. 9% in FY24), supported by stronger profitability across the broiler, DOC, and processed chicken segments. Notably, the processed chicken segment recorded an operating profit of IDR 862 bn in FY25 (vs. IDR 82 bn loss in FY24), marking a significant turnaround. Consequently, NPM rose to 8% (vs. 6% in FY24), translating into a +52% YoY surge in net profit to IDR 5.6 tn, representing 141% of our FY25 estimates.

 

 

 

 

🔹Chicken Prices Hold Strong, But Expecting Medium-Term Margin Normalization in FY26-FY27

• Strong Poultry Prices to Support 1Q26 Earnings. As of late 1Q26, the average live broiler price increased by approximately +8% YTD to IDR 27,184/kg, based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture, exceeding the government’s reference price of IDR 25,000/kg. Similarly, chicken carcass prices rose +6% YTD to IDR 41,648/kg, also above the reference level of IDR 40,000/kg. This sustained pricing strength should continue to support near-term earnings.

 

 

• Rising Supply Risks from Higher GPS Imports Over The Medium Term. Under the US–Indonesia trade agreement, the government plans to increase poultry imports, with Grand Parent Stock (GPS) imports rising to 800k in FY26 (vs. 580k in FY25). While this initiative aims to strengthen long-term production capacity, it could lead to higher DOC and broiler supply over the next 12–24 months, particularly if demand growth fails to absorb the incremental supply.

 

 

• A Slight Margin Normalization Expected in FY26F. We forecast GPM at 17.3%, OPM at 11.4%, and NPM at 7.7%, reflecting easing pricing dynamics and potential cost pressures. Consequently, we expect moderate growth in FY26F net profit by +3% YoY to IDR 5.8 tn, indicating a more normalized earnings trajectory following the strong FY25 performance.

 

 

 

🔹 BUY Recommendation with Target Price at IDR 5,050/Share

 

• We maintain our BUY rating on CPIN with TP of IDR 5,050, implying a potential upside of ~25% and an implied forward P/E of 14.3x based on our FY26F earnings. The stock is currently trading below its -1 standard deviation of historical average. We continue to favor CPIN on the back of improving margin and stronger bottom-line efficiency.

 

• Risks : (1) Higher input feed costs; (2) Softer Purchasing Power; and (3) Slowing growth in appetite for processed chicken segmen

 

 

 

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NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id