US economic data released on Friday sent Wall Street to close the week in negative territory, with the DJIA posting its biggest decline since September. with the DJIA posting the biggest decline since September, a minus of 3% last week causing the Dow to experience a decline of four consecutive weeks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were down as well, with 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively. the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Jan.) data, which the Fed uses to measure inflation; that jumped to 5.4% YoY (up 0.6% MoM). This result was not surprising as the Consumer Spending (Jan.) report, which supports 2/3 of US economic activity, jumped 1.8% last month (above expectations of 1.3%). New Home Sales (Jan.) also rose to 670k (above forecast & previous number of around 620k). With this kind of purchasing power, the market tied to the Fed’s policy rate added to bets of more rate hikes this year, with the peak rate seen in the range of 5.25%-5.5% by June. The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is the most sensitive to the central bank policy, rallied to a 4-month high of 4.826%. Meanwhile, on the other hand, Japan’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.3% (Jan.) vs. 4% in the previous month (the highest level since December 1981) driven by imported commodity prices and the weak yen. German economy contracted 0.4% in 4Q22 (worse than expected at minus 0.2%), the first sign of recession in 2 years.

For this week’s forecast, a series of economic data will provide an overview of the US economy’s robustness, as reflected in the Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, Home Sales Releases; as well as ISM Manufacturing & Service, which are scheduled to come out on Wednesday & Friday. Inflation figures from the Eurozone and its member countries (as well as Indonesia on 1 March), will provide an outlook on where interest policy is heading within a short-term. Meanwhile, from the East, China PMI data is expected to explain the rebound in consumer activity during the Lunar New Year holiday along with the border re-opening policy. To close the week, market participants are also awaiting a number of FY2022 earnings reports from retail companies, as this data is likely to shed a light on how well US consumer spending is performing and its impact on the Inflation rate.

Corporate News
TBS Energi Will Sell IDR 500 Billion Bonds This Week Based on the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI) announcement, TBS Energi Utama will hold a bond public offering period on February 27-28 by issuing bonds in two series. Series A bonds have a principal value of IDR 423 billion, the bonds with a three-year tenor offer a fixed interest rate of 8.8% per year. Series B bonds have a principal value of IDR 75 billion; this 5-year bond offers a fixed interest rate of 10% per year. (Kontan)

Domestic Issue
IDX Records Total Bonds and Sukuk in 2023 Amounting to IDR12.48 Trillion The total bond and sukuk that have been recorded throughout 2023 are 12 emissions from 11 issuers, which worth was IDR12.48 trillion. Therefore, up to this date, the total bond and sukuk emissions recorded on the IDX are 516 emssions, with an outstanding nominal value of IDR 455.03 trillion and USD47.5 million, issued by 126 issuers. Government Securities (SBN) listed on the IDX are 189 series, with a nominal value of IDR 5,425.54 trillion or an USD 452.11 million. Additionally, assetbacked securities (EBA) was recorded to have eight emissions, with a nominal value of IDR3.30 trillion. (Bisnis)

US10YT is still steadily undergoing an Uptrend above MA10 Support, indicating a robust uptrend. TARGET: 4.243 / 4.338. ADVISE: pay attention to the nearest Support of 3,892, if it is broken then it is necessary to reduce the position. Next Support: yield 3,777. ID10YT has temporarily stopped its upward move at the upper channel resistance around yield 6,812, which will open the possibility of a short pullback to test support at the Neckline pattern (bullish reversal) of Inverted Head & Shoulders as well as MA10, precisely at the point of yield 6.75. ADVISE: HOLD, BUY ON WEAKNESS.

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