US inflation has peaked. US YoY July Headline CPI is projected to slope to 8.7% (Vs. June 9.1%), due to lower fuel prices as crude oil prices decline. In a week, Brent and WTI contracted in October 2022 fell 3% to the level of USD96,6/Barrel and USD89.9/Barrel, respectively. Wall Street stocks responded positively, forming a gap up in early trading, before finally closing mixed earlier in the week. Meanwhile, last Friday’s solid employment data, signaled the US economy is poised for further FFR hikes. Fedwatch’s US Rate Futures project a 67.5% probability for a 75Bps September FFR hike, up from 41% before the labor data beat market expectations. The potential increase in FFR by 75Bps next September will be the last three-month consecutive increase of the same amount.
Investors responded negatively to the pressure of Consumer Confidence, the JCI was depressed to the level of 7,050 after touching the psychological level of 7,100 in the beginning of trading. BI noted that Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index in July fell to a level of 123.2 (Vs. Jun. 128.2), indicating that people are starting to reduce their consumption portion, as rising inflation makes consumers pay the same or even more costs for the same or even less products. JCI closed relatively flat at 7,086 with the highest strengthening of sectors including, Transportation & Logistic, and Basic Materials, supported by positive sentiment for Indonesia’s 2Q22 YoY GDP which grew impressively +5.44% (Vs. 1Q22 +5.01%). NHKSI Research projects that JCI will be bullish with Support: 7,050/7,000/6,930 and Resistance: 7,100-7,140/7,175.
Download full report HERE.