Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1%, while the NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.6%. The S&P 500 also declined 1.8%. Technology stocks, particularly those in the semiconductor sector, experienced significant losses. NVIDIA Corporation stock plunged 5.7%, while Tesla Inc closed 5.6% lower. Investors are increasingly concerned about the volatility of the White House’s tariff policies, which are perceived to hamper consumer spending and add uncertainty to business decisions.
• MARKET SENTIMENT: President Trump on Thursday announced a temporary exemption for goods imported from Canada and Mexico under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), delaying the implementation of a 25% tariff until April 2. In response to the U.S. tariff announcements, Canada has decided to postpone a planned second wave of retaliatory tariffs on $125 billion worth of U.S. products until April 2. Despite these temporary tariff exemptions, financial markets reacted negatively due to the prevailing uncertainty surrounding trade policies.
• U.S. jobless claims fell more than expected last week to 221,000, signaling a strong labor market. However, data showed that there has been a notable increase in unemployment claims filed by federal workers. For the week ending February 22, initial claims under the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees program rose to 1,634, up from 614 the previous week. This surge is largely attributed to mass layoffs initiated by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, aiming to reduce perceived inefficiencies within the federal workforce. Investors now await Friday’s employment report for insights on the economy and potential Fed rate moves amid tariff concerns and rising factory costs.
• ASIA MARKET: Traders were also worried by economic data from the U.S., which raised alarm that Trump’s policies could hinder the U.S. economy. Over in Asia, traders will look toward China’s combined trade data for January and February. China’s customs agency releases data for the first two months as a combined figure, to account for the Lunar New Year holidays. Economists polled by Reuters are expecting exports growth to slow to 5% year-on-year, while imports growth is forecast to hold steady at 1%.
• EUROPEAN MARKET: European markets ended in the green on Thursday, reversing course as investors digested the latest monetary policy decision from the European Central Bank. Policymakers at the institution announced a quarter-point cut to the euro zone’s key interest rate, bringing it down to 2.5%. The regional Stoxx 600 index ended around 0.13% higher after spending much of the day in negative territory. Germany’s DAX ended 1.6% higher after notching its best session since November 2022 on Wednesday and hitting a record high earlier on Thursday. German stocks have been powered by investors betting on stronger growth prospects and significantly higher spending on infrastructure and defense in Europe’s biggest economy, after politicians struck a landmark deal to try to reform existing debt restriction rules.
• COMMODITIES: Oil settled largely unchanged in choppy trade on Thursday, with global benchmark Brent closing below $70 a barrel under pressure from tariffs between the U.S., Canada, and China, and plans by OPEC+ to raise output. Brent futures settled up 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $69.46 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 5 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $66.36. On Wednesday, Brent hit $68.33, its weakest since December 2021, after a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories further pressured oil after OPEC+’s hike in output quotas for the first time since 2022 and new U.S. tariffs enacted on Tuesday. Russia said it will seek a peace deal in Ukraine that safeguards its own long-term security and will not retreat from the gains it has made in the conflict. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump exempted goods from Canada and Mexico under a North American trade pact for a month from the 25% tariffs that he imposed this week, the latest twist in fast-shifting trade policy that has whipsawed financial markets and business leaders. A source familiar with the discussions said that Trump could eliminate the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, such as crude oil and gasoline, that comply with existing trade agreements. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump exempted goods from Canada and Mexico under a North American trade pact for a month from the 25% tariffs that he imposed this week, the latest twist in fast shifting trade policy that has whipsawed financial markets and business leaders. A source familiar with the discussions said that Trump could eliminate the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, such as crude oil and gasoline, that comply with existing trade agreements.
• JCI jumped +1.32% to 6617.85 and broke above its current sideways channel resistance of 6531.8 and also broke 6570 (MA50 Resistance). NHKSI Research anticipates JCI to be at a sideways trend below 6500 as a solid resistance and 6000 as the next base support after breaking out of its previous solid support at 6393. Although during last 3 days JCI made a great bounce back after touched 6300 support area and several big banks also gained some net foreign buy/inflow, please mind the correction if JCI can’t break and close above 6650 resistance today.
Company News
• SIDO: Growing 23 Percent, Irwan Hidayat’s Issuer Raise Profit of IDR1.17 Trillion
• IMJS: Salim Group Issuer Seeks Approval for 3 Billion Shares Right Issue
• TBIG: Refinancing, TBIG Proposes IDR2.67 Trillion Bonds
Domestic & Global News
Prabowo Meets Aguan to Tomy Winata at Presidential Palace
Trump Delays Tariffs on Imports from Canada and Mexico until April
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