Global equity markets fell, and the dollar firmed against several world currencies after data showed a resilient US jobs market, indicating interest rates will stay higher for longer as central banks fight to slow inflation amid relatively strong economic growth. The Italian, German, French, and Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (Jan.) proves the situation by showing growth in the inflation rate within the production level. Markets now predict that the FFR will peak at above 5.1% in July (as Fed officials had previously predicted) and then decline to 4.83% in December. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield continued its climb to a 4-weeks high. According to Refinitiv data, analysts predict that S&P 500 quarterly earnings to decline 2.8% in 4Q22. Markets are now focused on awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, that set to speak on Tuesday.
Indonesian 4Q22 GDP came out at 5.01%, although lower than the previous quarter of 5.72% but still higher than the forecast of 4.84%; resulting in a cumulative growth of 5.31% throughout 2022, higher than the forecast of 5.29% and certainly higher than 2021, which was at 3.69%. The result is by far the highest since President Joko Widodo has been in office for almost 9 years. As for Rupiah was beaten back to IDR15055/USD, ending its Bottoming below the psychological level of 15000 within the past two weeks. This mixed sentiment made JCI almost test the MA50 Support at 6825, although in the end, it was able to close above MA10/6870; underpinned by a Net Foreign Buy of IDR 729.9 billion. NHKSI RESEARCH advises Indonesian capital market investors/traders to Hold all positions until JCI manages to move back above 6900 to ensure Uptrend remains intact.
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