Today’s Outlook:
• Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 32 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were both trading around flat. U.S. stock futures were little changed Wednesday night after the major averages posted back-to-back winning sessions. Semiconductor plays slid in extended trading, with Qualcomm, Arm and Skyworks Solutions respectively losing 5%, 7% and 23% after reporting their latest quarterly results. Ford Motor slid 5% after the automaker forecast a difficult 2025. The moves followed a second day of gains for the major stock averages. The Dow added 317.24 points, or 0.71%, during the day’s regular session. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 0.39% and 0.19%, respectively, aided by a jump in Nvidia shares.
• MARKET SENTIMENT: The US on Thursday might be hit with a bearish sentiment as initial jobless claims is anticipated to be at a higher 214K from a lower previous 207K. Across the pond, UK’s Bank of England will be announcing its February Interest Rate Decision. On the domestic front, Indonesia’s January Foreign Exchange Reserve will be released where it recently stood at USD 155.70 bn
• FIXED INCOME & CURRENCIES: The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest in more than a week on Wednesday as investor nerves about a global trade war abated, while the Japanese yen rallied on the back of strong wage data. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six peers , was last down 0.435% at 107.58, having earlier touched its lowest since January 27 at 107.29. As U.S. President Donald Trump looked poised to impose 25% import tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the dollar on Monday jumped as much as 1.3% to 109.88. It has since fallen around 2% after both Mexico and Canada won a one-month reprieve by beefing up border security, although the United States did increase levies on China. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slid on Wednesday after the U.S. government said it won’t be stepping up its debt issuance and amid fresh signs of a solid labor market. The benchmark yield was down more than 8 basis points to trade at 4.428%, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell more than 2 basis points to 4.191%. One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
• EUROPEAN MARKETS: The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.47% higher, with sectors and bourses mixed. European markets traded higher on Wednesday as earnings beats drove stock gains across various sectors. Banco Santander topped Stoxx 600 gains, up 8.3%, after the Spanish lender reported record quarterly profit. Pharma giant GSK closed 7.6% higher after hiking its long-term sales guidance and posting higher full-year core operating profit, while Denmark’s Novo Nordisk gained nearly 4.54% after beating fourth-quarter profit estimates amid continued strong demand for its obesity drugs. French oil major TotalEnergies also beat forecasts despite its 21% drop in full-year adjusted net income. Shares closed up 1.7%.
• ASIAN MARKETS: Asia-Pacific markets were set to open higher on Thursday, tracking gains on Wall Street as investors shrug off a week of trade turmoil and a slew of disappointing U.S. tech earnings. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.8% higher at the open. Japan’s Nikkei 225 futures pointed to a higher open for the market. The futures contract in Chicago is currently at 38,985 and its counterpart in Osaka last traded at 38,960 compared to the index’s previous close of 38,831.48. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures were at 20,681 also stronger than the HSI’s last close of 20,597.09. India’s central bank is expected to cut benchmark interest rates in its policy meeting that’s underway, as it strives to stimulate a faltering economy.
– The yuan fell 0.47% in onshore trading. Its gains were capped by the People’s Bank of China setting a stronger-than-expected midpoint rate, around which the currency is allowed to trade in a 2% band. Investors had watched the fixing for clues on whether Beijing would allow the yuan to weaken to blunt the impact of the trade measures. China on Tuesday imposed its own tariffs on imports from the United States in a swift response, and Trump said the same day he was in no hurry to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping to try to defuse the situation.
• COMMODITIES: OIL prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday as a large build in U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles signaled weaker demand, while worries about a new China-U.S. trade war fueled fears of softer economic growth. Brent crude futures settled down $1.59, or 2.09%, to $74.61 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.67, or 2.3%, to $71.03. U.S. crude oil inventories rose sharply last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as refiners facing soft gasoline demand did maintenance work. GOLD continued their record run on Wednesday, as investors sought the safe-haven asset amid escalating concerns about a U.S.-China trade war and the potential impact on economic growth. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $2,865.61 per ounce by 01:59 p.m. ET (1859 GMT), after hitting a record high of $2,882.16 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.6% higher at $2,893 per ounce.
• JCI corrected and stayed in the same sideways range between 6952 and 7191. With yesterday posting a Net Foreign Sell of IDR 490.48 bn in regular markets, this marks a consecutive Net Foreign Outflow that has been on-going since last year. Yet Rupiah strengthened against the dollar (-0.36%) to IDR 16,279. We are of the opinion our Foreign Exchange Reserve being released today may have declined from utilization. For the long-term, NHKSI RESEARCH views an incoming rally as RSI forms a positive divergence. NHKSI RESEARCH advises traders to maintain a WAIT & SEE attitude at the end of this week while waiting for important US Inflation data PCE PRICE index which will critically determine the global monetary policy map.
Company News
• BBNI: Request for Approval to Buyback IDR 905M Shares
• EXCL: XL Axiata (EXCL) Reaches IDR 1.85T Profit, Up 45 Percent in 2024
• TPIA: Shell Targets Divestment of Oil Refinery to Chandra Asri JV to Be Completed by Q1/2025
Domestic & Global News
Entrepreneurs Ask for Coal DMO Price to Increase, ESDM Finalizes MIP Scheme
Nissan Set to Step Back From Merger With Honda, Sources Say
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