Today’s Outlook:
• Stock futures were near the flatline Thursday night as investors awaited key payrolls data. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 13 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures edged slightly lower, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed about 0.1%. Investors are now turning to Friday’s jobs report, anticipating it will provide a clearer picture into the health of the domestic labor market and shape the Federal Reserve’s rate decision at its Dec. 17-18 policy meeting. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that nonfarm payrolls increased by 214,000 in November, which would mark a huge hike from October’s gain of just 12,000.
• MARKET SENTIMENT: November Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), November Non-Farm Payrolls, and November Unemployment Rate
• ASIA MARKETS: Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Thursday after Wall Street stock benchmarks notched record highs, shrugging off global political turmoil. Investors are continuing to monitor the political situation in South Korea and France. Less than a day after he declared martial law, lawmakers in South Korea filed a motion to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol.
• CURRENCY & FIXED INCOME: The Dollar Index traded 0.1% lower to 106.180 on Thursday. The dollar has handed back some of its recent gains in the wake of monthly private payrolls growing more slowly than expected while services sector activity slackened in November after posting gains in recent months. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury ticked higher on Tuesday as investors mulled over recent job openings data. The 10-year Treasury yield added 4 basis points to 4.232%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury dipped 2 basis points to trade at 4.177%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point equals 0.01%.
– The euro climbed 0.2% to 1.0532, climbing away from the two-year low of 1.0331 hit at the end of November even with French Prime Minister Michel Barnier set to resign after losing a no-confidence vote on Wednesday. This could result in the delaying of fiscal restraint in the eurozone’s second largest economy, but the country’s massive budget deficit will have to be tackled at some point.
– European markets closed higher Tuesday, with investors keeping an eye on political upheaval in France. The pan-European STOXX 600 index provisionally ended the day up 0.44%, with sectors mostly trading in positive territory. Retail stocks led gains, adding 1.56%, while construction and materials stocks also added more than 1%. Insurance stocks meanwhile fell 0.36%.
– Data released earlier Thursday showed that German factory orders fell 1.5% in October, while French industrial production also slipped on a monthly basis, suggesting weak growth ahead. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates next week, and the market is pricing in over 150 basis points of easings by the end of 2025.
• COMMODITIES: Oil prices settled lower Thursday, as concerns about growing supply of crude persisted, offsetting early gains following OPEC+’s decision to delay the restart of its oil production increases by three months. Brent oil futures fell 0.3% to USD72.09 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.4% to USD68.30 a barrel. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) has decided to delay the restart of its oil production increases by three months, representing the third postponement as crude prices remain under pressure. The additional production of 180,000 barrels per day was expected to start in January, but will instead start in April, and be implemented at a slower pace than previously outlined.
– Gold prices fell Thursday despite weakness in in the dollar ahead of key jobs report due Friday that is likely to sway the Federal Reserve’s rate decision slated for next week. Spot gold fell 0.7% to USD2,630.53 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in February fell 0.1% to USD2,653.64 an ounce. Gold sees limited safe haven demand as risk assets surge.
• JCI had a minor correction of – 11.82 (-0.16%) after a solid rebound. NHKSI RESEARCH is of the opinion JCI’s rebound will continue to form its window dressing journey in the last month of 2024. Investors/traders are advised to BUY for stocks that have rebounded from support area earlier this week. RUPIAH exchange rate is entrenched at 15,924/USD, there are hopes of “strengthening” Rupiah towards 15,600 – 15,500 at the end of this year based on the plan to cut FFR at the FOMC MEETING on 17 -18 December.
Company News
• HERO: Focus on IKEA and Guardian Business, HERO Renames DFI Retail Nusantara
• META & JSMR: Salim Group & GIC Complete Acquisition of 35% Shares of Jasamarga Transjawa Tol IDR 15.75 Trillion
• JPFA: Free Nutritious Meal Program Ready to Launch, Japfa Aims for Production Partnerships
Domestic & Global News
Prabowo Gives Green Light to 12% VAT Rate Starting January 1, 2025
Malaysia Says Trump’s Tariff Threat to BRICS Members Threatens Semiconductor Supply
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