Today’s Outlook:
• The Dow Jones closed flat on Wednesday (29/11/23), while S&P500 and NASDAQ edged down 0.1% and 0.2% respectively; however, they remained on track to post big November gains amid fresh optimism that the economy will avoid recession and ongoing optimism of Fed rate cuts of early next year. The Dow and S&P are on track to post gains of about 8% and 7% respectively in November, while the Nasdaq is eyeing an 11% gain for the month.
• THE US ECONOMY grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter, as gross domestic product increased at a 5.2% annualized rate last quarter, revised up from the previously reported 4.9% pace; this is the fastest pace of expansion since Q4 of 2021. The stronger growth spurred optimism that the economy likely to avoid recession. The GDP data comes ahead of the release of the PCE Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation benchmark, which is expected to slow to 0.1% in October, from 0.4% in September (forecast: 3.1% yoy vs 3.4% previous). The economic outlook has deteriorated due to slowing growth in recent weeks as consumers tighten spending amid a loosening labor market and inflation, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book released on Wednesday.
• The dollar index, which measures the greenback against 6 other major currencies, climbed 0.205% from its lowest level in more than three months as investors consolidated positions after four days of losses, with support from the U.S. GDP economic data. On the other hand, U.S. Treasury yields fell with the benchmark 10-year note on track for a third straight session of declines as the latest economic growth reading failed to upend market expectations that a Fed rate cut could be on the horizon. Benchmark 10-year notes were down 7.3 basis points at 4.263%, from 4.336% late on Tuesday. The 30 -year bond was last down 7.8 basis points to yield 4.4463%, from 4.524%; followed by the 2-year note (the most sensitive to interest rate movements) was last was down 9.9 basis points to yield 4.6372%, from 4.736%.
• COMMODITIES: Oil U.S. crude climbed Wednesday, as investors weighed up an unexpected rise in U.S. crude stockpiles and a Black Sea supply disruptions ahead of crucial OPEC+ meeting to discuss future production levels. U.S. crude supplies by 1.6M barrels in the week ended Nov. 24, confounding expectations for a decline of 933,000 barrels. On the supply side, meanwhile, a severe storm in the Black Sea region has disrupted up to 2 million barrels per day of oil exports from Kazakhstan and Russia. Still, investor attention remains largely focused on the meeting bwtween Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, amid expectations that the group could announce production cuts at its meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, the spot price of GOLD surged to a 7-month high of USD 2051/ounce.
• EUROPEAN & ASIAN MARKETS: Germany released its preliminary November Inflation estimate at 3.2% yoy, managing to fall from the previous month’s 3.8%. In the Asian continent, South Korea this morning has announced a number of lackluster economic data, starting from Industrial Production, Retail Sales, as well as Service Sector Output which all showed weakness in Oct. On the other hand, Japan was able to record a happier-than-expected Industrial Production (Oct), although their Retail Sales were equally sluggish. Of more concern to market participants is the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) data from China which is expected to improve slightly from the previous month although it is still pessimistic that the manufacturing sector can cross into expansionary territory. In the afternoon, there are a number of important data from Europe as follows: German Retail Sales, German Unemployment Rate (Nov), a preliminary estimate of Eurozone CPI (Nov) which should ease further to 2.8% yoy from 2.9% in Oct, and Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Oct).
• JCI has not been allowed to pass the important Resistance level of 7050 and often spawns Shooting Star-like candles which indicates a potential bearish reversal is on the horizon, especially if important economic data awaited by global market players turns out to be disappointing. Tomorrow, Indonesia will certainly announce the November Inflation rate which will also certainly play an important role in playing market sentiment. In this situation, NHKSI RESEARCH recommends holding Average Up positions in your portfolio, considering the potential for high volatility in the market in the next few days.

Company News
• BBTN : Profit Rises Slightly to IDR2.3 Trillion
• INTP : Preparing to Supply Cement to IKN Nusantara
• TINS : Tin Ore Production Target Next Year

Domestic & Global News
• Jokowi Highlights Food and Energy Inflation Potential Due to Global Economic Turmoil
• ECB Officials: It’s Not the Time to Discuss Lowering Benchmark Interest Rate

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