Today’s Outlook:
• US stocks closed in negative territory on Tuesday (26/03/24) with NASDAQ leading the way down 0.4%, as investors digested US Consumer Confidence data that fell to its lowest level since November, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next statement and key Inflation benchmark data later this week. Offsetting the higher-than expected Durable Goods Orders (Feb.) data to 1.4% mom from negative -6.9% in January; on the other hand, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence in March fell to 104.7, missing expectations of 106.9. Consumer confidence is one of the benchmarks of public spending that drives the overall economy, when there is an indication of weakening consumer purchasing power, it will support the discourse of cutting interest rates as soon as June. Currently market participants see a 70% chance that the Fed will start easing its monetary policy in June, up from 59% probability last week (as reported by the CME FedWatch Tool survey). Along with the eagerly awaited PCE price index on Friday, investors will also monitor statements from several Fed officials, especially Fed Governor Christopher Waller this Wednesday and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday.
• ASIA & EUROPE MARKETS: JAPAN reports BoJ Core CPI which in fact came in at 2.3%, below forecasts of 2.5% and also the previous month’s 2.6%; the lowest level since October 2022 and Core Inflation has been falling consistently since October 2023. In continental Europe, GERMANY publishes the GfK German Consumer Climate (Apr.) which seems to be still pessimistic about the business climate as expected around the level of -27.4, not yet moving up from March’s position at -28.8. Today it is the turn of the EUROZONE region to release Business Climate and Consumer Confidence data for March, not forgetting a number of surveys related to business & consumer sentiment.
• COMMODITIES: OIL prices closed lower after the release of US oil inventory stocks last week surprisingly soared to 9.3 million barrels, compared to the expected shrink of around 1.2 million barrels as forecast by economists; following a decline of 1.5 million barrels in the previous week (as reported by the American Petroleum Institute). Following the report, US WTI oil prices depreciated to USD 81.25/barrel after stabilizing at USD 81.62/barrel. However, price support still remains thanks to political tensions in the Russia-Ukraine region, where analysts even expect BRENT oil prices to continue moving higher towards the USD 90 target until June. Meanwhile, calls for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war have intensified after the UN Security Council also suggested an immediate peace resolution especially in the holy month of Ramadan, amid the US abstention. Later today, traders will monitor official data on US oil inventories from the US government where a decline of around 1 million barrels is expected last week.
• JCI finally closed at 7365.66 up above MA10 Resistance, after rallying 12 points on Tuesday. However, the JCI seems to still be stuck in the “confused” phase as in the past few days, as it seems that Indonesian investors/traders are also considering the domestic aspect related to the release of FY23 earnings reports which almost reached the deadline at the end of March, in a trading week cut short by the Easter holiday; while there is still a factor of uncertainty regarding the acceptance of the official results of the general election announced last week. Although JCI has the potential to run more freely towards the next Resistance
at the previous High level of 7400-7450, NHKSI RESEARCH advises investors/traders not to be too aggressive in Averaging Up, while paying attention to market interest in general and sector rotation in order to get some trading opportunities.
Company News
• ICBP: Profit Soars 52 Percent
• HRTA: Reached IDR12 Trillion in Sales
• INTP: Record Sales Volume of 19.3 Million Tons
Domestic & Global News
• Tin Exports Plummet, Babel Regional Government Requests People’s Mining Permit to Be Approved Immediately
• Musk’s Xai to Enable Chatbot Grok for All Premium Subscribers of X
Download full report HERE.
