All three major US indexes were flat to bearish, with the Nasdaq leading the way down 1.16% in early trading on the last week of June, triggered by investor concerns that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive posture on interest rate policy will send the country’s economy into recession. After Friday, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 had broken their 8-week and 5-week gain streaks. On Monday trading (26/06/23), investors weighed the effects of Russia’s political turmoil on financial markets. A number of mercenaries who had been moving towards Moscow with the intention of shaking the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, are alleged to have stopped their actions. World Crude Oil prices, which had heated up slightly or rose 0.3%, stabilized at USD 69.37/barrel. Commodity traders will be closely monitoring European conditions for possible supply disruptions. In terms of interest rates, investors are focused on the next policy direction. The Federal Reserve is still determined to continue its tight monetary policy while bringing down Inflation to the 2% target level. More economic data will be released this week such as Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Durable Orders, & weekly Jobless Claims; expected to help determine the future direction of interest rate policy. From Europe, Germany reported German Ifo Business Climate Index (June) at 88.5, lower than expectation of 90.7 & certainly from previous period 91.5; signaling businesses from manufacturing, contracting, wholesale & retail sectors view that Germany’s business climate will weaken in the next 6 months.

Meanwhile domestically, JCI managed to close in positive territory on Monday (26/06/23) to start a short trading week, supported by foreign buying interest amounting to IDR 113.53 billion. On the last trading day of semester 1/2023, JCI is expected to attempt a break of MA20 & MA10 Resistance. A close above 6685 will be enough to keep JCI in a less bearish territory (aka sideways) while the market is closed due to the long Eid al-Adha holiday & leave on June 28-30. NHKSI RESEARCH advises Indonesian investors/traders to HOLD all positions, and delay to Average Up too much as JCI is vulnerable to many uncertain factors that may occur during the holiday.

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