Today’s Outlook:
• A number of global stock indexes fell after hitting record levels last week, as investors took a pause ahead of key economic data releases from the US amid emerging US corporate earnings reports; while Crude oil prices rallied on the back of concerns over disruptions to sea shipping lanes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and peers closed lower on Monday, with the S&P500 leading the decline by 0.38%. Prior to Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, market participants are also looking forward to the 4th quarter US GDP released on Wednesday, which is expected to come out at 3.3% qoq, lower than 4.9% in the previous quarter; indicating that although the US economy seems to be more resilient than some other developed economies, the economic slowdown is evident. The above data will provide a new factor of consideration for investors who seem to have re-evaluated the chances of a rate cut due to the release of strong Inflation and employment data. In other investment instruments, US Treasury yields rose after the auction session, while the Dollar fell against a number of other major world currencies including the Euro although the Dollar strengthened slightly against the Japanese Yen.
• ECONOMIC DATA: Yesterday’s new home sales to young families in the US rose lower than expected in January, amid a slumping trend in the US South. Today investors look forward to Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence data for Feb. Market participants are also monitoring the risk of a US government shutdown if Parliament does not approve a debt extension on Friday.
• COMMODITIES: OIL prices rallied on Monday as diesel demand from Europe was hampered by sanctions on Russia and disruptions to sea shipping lanes, pushing prices higher at a time when US refinery production is also in danger of being sub-optimal due to scheduled maintenance/overhaul. US WTI rose 1.43% to USD 77.58/barrel, while Brent added 1.1% at USD 82.54/barrel. In other commodities, the spot price of GOLD fell 0.2% to USD 2031.55/ounce, while copper depreciated 1.38% to USD 8449/ounce.
• ASIA & EUROPEAN MARKETS: Japan just released national Inflation figures (Jan) at 2.2% yoy, versus 2.6% in the previous month. Meanwhile, National Core CPI came in at 2.0% yoy, slightly higher than the forecast of 1.9%, although slipping from Dec month at 2.3%. Further this afternoon from Continental Europe, Germany will explain its outlook on the consumer climate in March which is likely to remain sluggish.
• JCI is again testing the Support level of the Uptrend that has been running since bottom of November, where yesterday’s Low point of 7255 holds PDA trendline lower channel and MA20. NHKSI RESEARCH needs to remind investors/traders that Closing below 7240 will bring deeper consolidation with the possibility of heading to 7100-7050 again (up to the round number 7000 as psychological Support). JCI should be safe enough in its uptrend if it is able to immediately rise above MA10 or 7310. Plan your portfolio management based on the breakout direction chosen by JCI.
Company News
• ASGR: Booked Net Profit Worth IDR141.07 Billion
• BFIN: Profit Declines 9.02% in 2023
• PGEO: Together with PLN IP Encourage the Commerciality of Geothermal Power Plants
Domestic & Global News
• Be prepared! 2025 State Budget Deficit of 2.8% Due to Free Lunch Program
• Goldman Sachs and Abu Dhabi SWF Agree to IDR 15 Trillion Investment Alliance
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