Today’s Outlook:
• The stock market retreated on Tuesday (21/11/23), with the S&P500 and Nasdaq snapping 5 consecutive winning sessions as Retail stocks fell after some doubtful outlook especially in the midst of the holiday shopping season; plus sluggishness in big Tech stocks. The most dominating sentiment was the release of the last Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes, where policymakers were still inclined to keep interest rates high for a longer period of time. Fed officials are still taking a fairly cautious approach to monetary policy until they get clear evidence that Inflation has indeed been successfully suppressed. The absence of any hint of a rate cut also adds to the uncertainty of the Fed’s interest rate trend ending, although market participants are calculating the chances of a larger rate cut being realized at the US central bank’s May 2024 meeting. The US reported lower-than-expected Existing Home Sales (Oct.) at 3.79 million (vs. forecast of 3.9 million units) so on a monthly basis existing home sales for November fell -4.1% mom. Tonight will see the weekly Durable Goods Orders (Oct.) and Initial Jobless Claims data; as well as the Univ. of Michigan’s economic outlook on Inflation and consumer expectations for business over the next 6 months.
• COMMODITIES: Oil Prices fell on Tuesday, giving back earlier gains as traders were cautious ahead of the OPEC+ meeting at the weekend. Weekly inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are due out on Tuesday and Wednesday.
• The JCI fell on Tuesday after Bank Indonesia reported that the Current Account for the third quarter of 2023 was in deficit. Indonesia recorded a Current Account deficit of USD860 million (0.2% of GDP) in the third quarter of 2023, down from a surplus of USD4.63 billion in the same period a year earlier. This was the second consecutive quarter of Current Account deficit, as the trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD10.27 billion in Q3 of 2023 from USD17.62 billion in the same period of 2022, amid moderating commodity prices. In the first three quarters of 2023, the Current Account recorded a deficit of USD100 million, reversing from a surplus of USD9.13 billion in the same period of 2022.
• The lack of sentiment from regional markets today has led Indonesian investors/traders to look to domestic catalysts. NHKSI RESEARCH expects a revival in the prices of some commodities may stimulate the natural resources sector (Mining, Energy, Plantation) today.
Company News
• BNGA : Pefindo Withdraws Bank CIMB Niaga’s Bond Rating
• WIRG : Working on Immersive Technology and AI in the Retail Sector
• UNTR : Subsidiary Loan Availability Revised
Domestic & Global News
• Indonesia’s Balance of Payments in the Third Quarter Again in Deficit, Interest Rate Potentially Increased?
• Saudi Arabia Signs IDR 108 Trillion Currency Exchange with China, Signals to Enter BRICS?
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