Today’s Outlook:
• Global equity markets slumped on Wednesday (20/11/24) as investors weighed the Russia vs. the West conflict; while Bitcoin hit a new record high and the US Dollar strengthened after 3 consecutive sessions of losses. Driving US market sentiment: Nvidia shares fell 0.4% after the AI chipmaker forecast fourth-quarter revenue largely in line with analysts’ estimates. Shares of the world’s most valuable company previously closed down 0.8% in regular hours trading on Wednesday. The benchmark S&P 500 index ended flat while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained and the Nasdaq ended lower. The DJIA index rose 0.32% to 43,408.47, the S&P 500 was flat at 5,917.11, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.11%. The MSCI All-World Index trimmed 0.16% to 847.84, while European stocks closed down 0.02%.
• MARKET SENTIMENT: Safe-haven assets such as Gold and government bonds lifted on Tuesday after news of Ukraine launching US -made ATACMS missiles at Russia, and with Russia announcing it had lowered the threshold for strikes on nuclear infrastructure. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was observed downplaying the nuclear threat, thereby helping to ease the markets.
– Investors are also paying close attention to US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice for Treasury Secretary, which may be announced on Wednesday evening local time.
– For economic indicators that could be of interest to the market today are Initial Jobless Claims figure (consensus: increased to 220k), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov): expected to fall to 6.3 from 10.3 the previous month, as well as more data related to the US housing sector: Existing Home Sales (Oct).
• CURRENCY & FIXED INCOME: President Trump’s policy of potentially reigniting Inflation is still the theme that boosted the DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) up 0.54% to 106.68, snapping 3 consecutive losing sessions but still below the year high. The index has gained nearly 3% since the US election on November 5. The Dollar was last up 0.48% against the Yen at 155.40. Against the Swiss Franc, the Dollar was also up 0.2% at 0.88410.
– The Chinese Yuan weakened against the US Dollar after the PBOC kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 3.10% and 3.60% for the long term (5Y), both in line with consensus.
– BITCOIN, which hit a new record high almost touching USD 95,000, was up 2.53% at USD 94,579.01. Its price has risen more than 30% since Trump’s election, supported by expectations that he will create a more cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory environment. Bitcoin’s rise was also helped by a Financial Times report that Trump Media and Technology Group, which operates Truth Social and is majority owned by Trump, is close to acquiring the entire stake of crypto trading company Bakkt.
• COMMODITIES: GOLD prices rose for the third consecutive session to hit a week high. Gold spot price gained 0.69% at USD 2,649.89/ ounce.
– OIL prices closed lower after US crude oil and gasoline stocks rose more than expected last week. BRENT crude oil prices for January closed down 0.68% at USD 72.81. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices for December ending on Wednesday, closed down 0.75% at USD 68.87, while the more active US WTI contract for January closed down 0.71% at USD 68.75.
• EUROPEAN MARKETS: UK inflation (Oct) was 0.1% higher than expected, at 2.3% yoy, as per estimates heating up again from the previous month’s 1.7%, and back above the BOE’s 2% safety limit target. The same rise in goods & services prices also occurred in GERMANY but this time at the Producer level, where GERMAN PPI (Oct) came in at 0.2% mom, moving from -0.5% deflation in Sept.
• INDONESIA: BI’s RDG resulted in the rate decision to remain at 6.0%, as expected, but the RUPIAH has yet to budge from its range above 15,800 (15,859 at the moment to be precise), while foreign Net Sell was observed to still flow at IDR 585.17bn (RG market) with the concentration of dumps still around the bluechips BBRI & TLKM. Technically, NHKSI RESEARCH sees JCI needs a lot of motivation to break the first Resistance: MA10 which is right at yesterday’s high of 7229.71. If this break out has occurred, then it is more legitimate to Average Up while escorting JCI up towards the 7400-7500 Target. On the other hand, it is possible that JCI still needs to pay off its destiny down towards a more capable Support around the psychological level of 7000.
Company News
• INDY: Targeting 50% of Non-Coal Revenue by 2028
• SMMT: Golden Eagle Private Placement 315 Million Shares
• HRTA: Hartadinata Abadi Issues IDR 900 Billion Bonds, Here Are the Interest Rates
Domestic & Global News
Minister of Manpower Ensures 2025 UMP Determination Does Not Follow Old Formula
G20 Summit: Brazil Urges Member States to Accelerate National Climate Targets
Download full report HERE.
