• The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.6%, while the S&P500 jumped 0.8%, and the Nasdaq led a 1.1% gain ahead of the Federal Reserve Minutes release and the release of Nvidia’s performance which is likely to become the key sentiment for the mega-cap Technology sector in particular, during a short trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Investors have almost priced in a 100% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the December FOMC Meeting; coupled with the chance of a rate cut at the next meeting around summer next year. Later tonight, US Existing Home Sales data will be monitored, which is estimated not to change much from the previous figure.
• ASIA & EUROPE MARKETS: China kept its benchmark interest rates in place at the current 4.20% for the long term and 3.45% for the short term. Germany reported deflation at the producer level eased to -11% yoy in Oct from -14.7% in Sept, while Sept Construction Output detected a move towards the positive by growing 0.45% mom, from -1.06% in the previous month. Speaking of PPI, South Korea reported its producer price index softened to 0.8% yoy, compared to 1.4% in Sept; on a monthly basis, it entered deflationary territory -0.1% mom compared to 0.5% in the previous month. Later tonight at around 22.50WIB Indonesia will release the Balance of Payments data.
• COMMODITIES: Oil prices climbed more than 2% on Monday (20/11/23) as traders expect OPEC+ will decide whether to continue or increase production cuts at their planned meeting next week. Brent futures closed at USD 82.32/barrel, up 2.1%; while the December WTI contract settled at USD 77.6/barrel, up 2.3% (the more active January contract was slightly higher at USD 77.83/ barrel, up 1.8%). The two benchmark Oil prices had fallen for four consecutive weeks, yet started to rebound on Friday, jumping 4% on the back of profit-taking (cover shorts) and after three sources from OPEC+ told Reuters that producing countries would consider adding to supply cuts when they meet on November 26. Oil prices have fallen nearly 20% since late September as crude production in the US (the world’s top producer) is at a record high; while markets are concerned about sluggish demand, especially from China (the world’s number one oil importer). Traders are also watching for signs of falling demand due to the possibility of a US recession in 2024.
• JCI: Finally returned to the psychological level of 7000 after 2 months, but unfortunately the closing position was not steady enough to break the Resistance. NHKSI RESEARCH expects the dominating sentiment that will motivate JCI to break this psychological Resistance is about the US interest rate trend as well as the BI RDG decision which is originally scheduled for next Thursday. Therefore, the best advice for now is to use the existing bullish momentum to Average Up on portfolios that managed to break their respective price Resistance. The bullish aura is likely to persist, but more buying should be done after the solid 7000 level.
• NCKL : Open Nickel Export Opportunities to Korea and Japan
• ISAT : MKM Subscriber Acquisition Completed
• INDY : Capex Absorbed IDR1.62 T
Domestic & Global News
• Jokowi Groundbreaking 12 Projects in IKN Next Month, IDR 10 Trillion Investment
• Weak Yuan Effect, PBOC Holds China’s Lending Rate
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