The US stock market closed in the red at the end of last week, weighed down by Microsoft and other large cap stocks as comments from two Federal Reserve officials reminded that US Core Inflation has not budged and rate hikes are still necessary as US Inflation is still far from their target of 2%. Traders are now pricing in the possibility of the Fed cutting rates in December, following an expected 25 bps rate hike at the July FOMC Meeting, as reported by CME Group Fedwatch Tool. A survey from University of Michigan showed that market sentiment and expectations are improved, with expectations of consumer price inflation falling to its lowest point this June and the outlook over the next five months improved significantly. Moreover, the US capital markets will be closed on Monday for a national holiday. The Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, and China’s central bank began to cut borrowing costs. Meanwhile, the ECB chose to raise its benchmark interest rate by a further 25 basis points. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that there are no plans to stop this trend of rising interest rates. Oil prices slipped on Friday but remain on track for a three-week weekly uptrend, supported by hopes that OPEC+ supply cuts and higher demand from China’s top crude importer will heat up the market in the second half of the year. Gold prices found support as the US Dollar Index trended to a 5-week low below 103. However, analysts believe that the US Federal Reserve may still raise the benchmark interest rate two more times this year. Malaysian palm oil futures jumped for a fourth day, setting it on track for an 11% weekly surge, as dry weather conditions curbed the outlook for US palm oil and soybean production.
Meanwhile, JCI also closed in negative territory last week triggered by Foreign Net Sell of IDR 1.7trillion. JCI still needs more motivation to end the Sideways between MA10 & MA20 Support and break above MA50 as well as the crucial Resistance of 6735-6765. NHKSI RESEARCH suggests that an Average Up strategy is the wisest bet for now, while keeping an eye on global economic data developments.
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