Today’s Outlook:
• US stock markets were hit by a sell-off as the DJIA broke a 3-day consecutive uptrend and instead led the decline by shedding 0.35% or 137 points to 38905.66, as chipmakers continued to lose ground for a second day, while US PPI data turned out to be hotter than expected as gasoline and food costs increased, making investors rethink that the Federal Reserve may wait even longer to cut interest rates. Inflation at the US producer level rose 1.6% yoy in Feb (above expectations of 1.1% and the previous month’s 1%) and 0.6% on a monthly basis, double the last reading of 0.3% in Jan. On the other hand, the Retail Sales figure also improved significantly, from -1.1% in Jan to positive 0.6% in Feb, while on an annualized basis it grew 1.5% yoy from 0.04% in the same month last year. Seeing that Inflation data is still on fire in the last 2 months, no doubt investors believe that the Fed may still need to keep interest rates higher for longer. Complementing all that, Initial Jobless Claims recorded 209k new jobless claims, also below the estimate of 218k, indicating that the labor market is still tight. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates 2-3 times in the second half of this year, as the US economy is in a soft-landing phase. Today market participants will monitor the Industrial Production (Feb) data as well as an important view on March consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.
• ASIA MARKETS: Improved Retail Sales figures were also experienced by INDONESIA in Jan with annualized growth of 1.1%, from 0.2% in the previous period. Later at 09.00 WIB Indonesia’s Trade Balance (Feb) figures will be the focus of attention where the surplus this time is expected to increase to USD 2.3 billion, from USD 2.0 billion in Jan; and more importantly a significant increase in Export & Import activity in Feb. From CHINA, the New Loans data will be a reference to whether China’s economic recovery is on an expansionary path, or still relatively depressed as reflected in the projected new loan figures which are likely to narrow.
• COMMODITIES: OIL prices continued their second day of gains and were at a 5-month high on Thursday trading (14/03/24) after the International Energy Agency (IEA) upgraded its 2024 crude oil demand growth forecast. The IEA raised its projection for global oil demand in 2024, to 1.3 barrel/day, up 110k bpd from last month. The agency also expects demand in the first quarter to grow higher than the previous estimate of 1.7 million bpd due to an improved US economic outlook. Meanwhile OPEC on Tuesday stuck to its stance that this year’s demand growth forecast stands at 2.25 million bpd, a higher projection than the IEA estimate. US WTI futures jumped 1.9% to USD 81.26/barrel, Brent appreciated 1.7% to USD 85.42/barrel.
• JCI: briefly slipped to below 7400 but eventually pulled up again in the afternoon session, pushing up 12 points to a Closing level of 7433.31; this time solidly supported by Foreign Net Buy of IDR 1.93 trillion (all markets), bringing YTD position to IDR 25.7 trillion. Despite the strengthening that occurred and how determined JCI was to stay above the 74xx level even after the appearance of a Doji candle in the Resistance area plus RSI negative divergence indicating weakening buying momentum, NHKSI RESEARCH advises investors/traders to choose trading opportunities wisely while paying attention to sector rotation, as well as refrain from adding too much buying positions, especially at the end of the week like today.
Company News
• BRIS: 2023 Profit Reached IDR5.7 Trillion
• INCO: Selling 603.44 Million Right Issue
• PGAS: Net Profit Plummets 14.7%
Domestic & Global News
• As Election 2024 and Ramadan Happen, February Retail Sales are Projected to Rise 3.6%
• Good News! Finance Minister Janet Yellen Signals US Inflation to Fall Soon
Download full report HERE.
