The Hawkish period is longer in 2023. The FOMC Rate Decision results project that next year’s FFR to end at 5.1%, 50 Bps higher than the previous projection last September, which stated that the FFR in 2023 will end at the level of 4.6%. The Fed’s commitment to suppress the inflation down to 2% YoY after November CPI and PPI inflation data has cooled. On the other hand, the positive sentiment of the FFR in Dec., which is only +50 Bps (vs. +75 Bps), benefited the market. The market took advantage of this momentum to carry out several profit-taking actions. Furthermore, the Wall Street exchange was recorded weaker, with the Dow down by 100 points.

The increase in the Nov. CPO price of 10% MoM supports the export in Indonesia’s Trade Balance. Based on a Bloomberg survey, Indonesia’s Trade Balance in Nov. is projected to have a surplus of +USD4.3 billion (vs. Oct. +USD5.6 billion). CPO export volume also improved, in line with the increase of manufacturing activities in several main trading partners of Indonesia, such as China, India, and several countries in the European region. Additionally, Indonesia’s exports in Nov. are projected to grow 9.46% YoY, a slower growth than in Oct., which reached 12.30% YoY. Amid the wait for Indonesia’s Trade Balance release today, NHKSI Research projects that JCI tends to move in a consolidation.

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