• Wall Street markets were mixed ahead of the US Inflation data release this Tuesday (approx. 20.30 GMT). The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.2% supported by Energy and Healthcare stocks, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq lost 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Global Oil prices rallied following last week’s sharp decline amid concerns of weakening global demand, especially from China, the largest importer of oil. Unpleasant news came from Moodys, the debt rating agency which on Friday cut the US debt outlook from stable to negative, citing large fiscal deficits and declining ability to cope with debt; although it reaffirmed its “Aaa” long-term rating. This warning comes at a time when the threat of a government shutdown is back in the air, where the current deadline is Nov 17th for Congress to agree on an extension of operating funds to keep the government running. US CPI (Oct) is expected to slow to 0.1% mom and 3.3% yoy, sloping from the previous month’s position of 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on an annualized basis. If this cooling of inflation is realized, it may slightly fade the hawkish view of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues who last week said that the fight against inflation may not be over and that there is still a possibility for an interest rate hike. Investors estimate there is a nearly 86% chance of the Fed holding rates steady in December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
• ASIA MARKETS: Japan announced Oct. producer-level inflation of 0.8% yoy (lower than forecast and previous month), and continued its monthly deflation of -0.4% mom. Machine Tool Orders from Japan again recorded a drop of 20.6% yoy, falling further from the previous period which was already minus 11.2%. In the neighboring country, China released New Loans data for Oct which turned out to be greater than expected at CNY 738.4 billion, but still did not change the position of Outstanding Loan Growth (oct) at 10.9% yoy.
• EUROPEAN MARKETS: Later this afternoon, the UK will publish a number of employment-related data such as the unemployment rate or Claimant Count Change (Oct), average wage growth, as well as the September Unemployment Rate which is predicted to remain relatively the same as August at 4.2%. In the evening, Germany will release the ZEW Economic Sentiment to explain the market’s optimism about the business world in the next 6 months, complemented by the Eurozone which will release the 3rd quarter GDP update where economic growth is expected to slow both on a monthly and annual basis.
• COMMODITIES: In its latest monthly report on world oil supply & demand, OPEC raised its forecast for world oil demand in 2023 to 2.46 million barrels per day (bpd) – up 20,000 from the previous forecast. In 2024, OPEC sees demand increasing by 2.25 million bpd, unchanged from last month. The question now is whether OPEC+ members Russia and Saudi Arabia will continue to cut production after December. This outlook inevitably sent WTI and Brent Oil prices up 1.4% each after last week both fell 3%-4%. So far, the hawkish view maintained by Fed officials is keeping the US Dollar high, weighing on Oil market sentiment for non-US countries.
• JCI: appears to be steadily staying above the crucial MA20 & MA10 Support, preparing the stance for the planned breakout of the crucial 6870-6900 Resistance. NHKSI RESEARCH advises Indonesian capital market investors/traders to closely monitor the break out attempt and prepare for Average Up; while keeping the Support area of 6790-6800 to sustain market interest.
• MIDI : Recorded IDR390.51 Billion Net Profit
• ARKO : Establish New Business Entity in Kalimantan
• ASRI : Profit Soars 97%
Domestic & Global News
• Minister: TikTok in Talks With Indonesian E-commerce Firms About Partnerships
• Joe Biden and Xi Jinping to Meet in US to Discuss Strategic Issues
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