Inflation optimism has reached its peak, and the Nasdaq was up by 200 points, which led Wall Street’s gains. Other than tech stocks sensitive to high-interest rates, the rally in energy stocks was impacted by rising oil prices. As China’s Covid Policy has loosened, triggering a demand surge. Moreover, Inflation Headline US Oct. slumped below 8% YoY, giving speculation regarding Hawkish FFR in Dec. to ease, or just up +50Bps (Vs. +75Bps), putting pressure on the Safe Haven USD, with the DXY falling close to the psychological level of 100 points. Additionally, Wall Street’s gains was contrasted with the declining consumer sentiment, as the inflation and interest rates remained high, signaling the public consumption to be more selective. Data showed by U. of Mich. US Sentiment in Nov. was at 54.7 (Vs. Oct. 59.9).
The fading of low US inflation sentiment, and the lack of sentiment today, made investors immediately anticipate the release of Indonesia’s Trade Balance data on Tuesday (15/11). Based on a Bloomberg survey, Indonesia’s Trade Balance surplus in Oct. was worth +USD4.3 billion (Vs. Sept. +USD4.9 billion). Thus, NHKSI Research sees a lower export realization, in line with the normalization of several main export commodities prices in Indonesia, such as coal and CPO. Amid several sentiments, we project that JCI today has the opportunity to move bullish.
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