Today’s Outlook:
• The US stock market mostly closed higher on Monday and Tuesday during the Nyepi holiday and the beginning of the fasting month, even the S&P500 closed at a record high of 5175.27 on Tuesday trading (12.03.24) as market participants responded to the higher-than-expected US Inflation report, also supported by bullish speculation in the Technology sector. The US Labor Department reported that US CPI (Feb) rose 0.4% on a monthly basis after rising 0.3% in January, or equivalent to 3.2% yoy, slightly warming up from 3.1% in Jan. Excluding volatile food and energy components, Core Inflation rose 0.4% mom in Feb after rising by the same margin in Jan, bringing the annualized pace to 3.8% from 3.9%, but still slightly above the 3.7% projection. Bond yields moved higher on the prospect of higher for longer interest rates, but this did not stem bullish speculation in the Technology sector, led by Oracle and Nvidia stock rebound. Even investors now see a 70% chance of the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, fairly stable compared to the 71% probability ahead of the inflation report.
• COMMODITIES: OIL prices fell on Tuesday, marginally lower after the US issued a higher-than-expected 2024 US crude oil production forecast, amid bearish economic data, while lingering geopolitical tensions limited potential price weakness. Brent oil for May delivery fell 29 cents to $81.92 a barrel. The April US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract ended 37 cents lower at $77.56. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said U.S. inflation was still rising in February, and cited high gasoline and shelter costs as the main culprits. On Tuesday, OPEC forecast relatively strong global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025, further raising its economic growth estimate for this year saying there is still room for improvement. On the supply side, the US Energy Information Association raised its forecast for domestic oil production growth in 2024 by 260,000 barrels per day to 13.19 million barrels, compared to the previous forecast increase of only 170,000 barrels per day. Analysts suggest that this increased supply forecast may be motivated by the assumption of higher oil prices. Meanwhile, US crude stockpiles fell by 5.521 million barrels in the week ended March 8, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
• EUROPE & ASIA MARKETS: today a myriad of economic data from continental Europe will be unveiled to investors. Starting with the UK: GDP (Jan), Industrial & Manufacturing Production (Jan), Trade Balance (Jan); followed by Industrial Production (Jan) from the Eurozone. While from the Bamboo Curtain country, China estimates that the New Loans disbursed will shrink to CNY 1510 billion, from the previously massive CNY 4920 billion.
• INDONESIA: is scheduled to know the level of Consumer Confidence in February around 11.00 WIB later. At the start of trading this week after a long weekend holiday at the beginning of the fasting month, NHKSI RESEARCH expects the JCI market to adjust to regional markets and afterward run quite slowly, as the habit of market participants during the month of Ramadan. It is better to WAIT & SEE for a moment to observe where the market interest is heading before jumping further into the market.
Company News
• ADHI: Net Profit Reached IDR 214 Billion
• VKTR: Net Profit Drops 89 Percent
• PGAS: Gas Sales Projected to Rise 4%
Domestic & Global News
• Traders Say Maximum Retail Price Relaxation Keeps Rice Prices and Stocks Stable
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Reveals US Recession Risk Still Exists
Download full report HERE.
