Today’s Outlook:
• World stock indexes did not move much on Monday (12/02/24) while most Asian markets were still in Chinese/Lunar New Year holiday mode; meanwhile the US Dollar crept up ahead of the US Inflation announcement, which will provide further clues as to when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. S&P500 hit another intraday record high; MSCI world stock index closed flat after hitting its highest level since January 2022. The US CPI report is scheduled for later tonight at around 2030WIB, while US PPI will follow later in the week, as well as Thursday’s Retail Sales (Jan) report. Expectations of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC Meeting have dropped significantly as several recent indicators show the US economy remains strong. The market is pricing in an 84.5% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in March. In contrast, the odds of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points in May have swelled to 61%, according to the CME FedWatch survey. Investors have also reduced their expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank, after two officials last week said that the ECB needs more evidence for inflation to ease before it can cut rates.
• Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its January Survey of Consumer Expectations, which showed that inflation 1 year and 5 years from now were unchanged at 3% and 2.5% respectively. Meanwhile, the projection for Inflation 3 years from now will drop to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2020, from 2.6% in December. The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of other major trading partners’ currencies, was up 0.1% at 104.13. US Treasury yields slipped, with the benchmark 10-year bond stalling after three consecutive sessions of gains. The yield on the benchmark US 10-year note fell 1.9 basis points to 4.168%, from 4.187% at the end of Friday.
• COMMODITIES: OIL futures ended flat between negative & positive territory. Concerns over the future of benchmark interest rates and global demand issues caused the market to take a pause after prices surged around 6% last week. US WTI crude rose 8 cents to $76.92 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 19 cents to $82.In other commodities, spot GOLD prices fell 0.3%.
• ASIA & EUROPEAN MARKETS: Earlier this morning, Japan has reported its producer price index PPI (Jan) inching positive 0.2% yoy, from a flat 0.0% the previous month. Later in the afternoon Indonesia will report Consumer Confidence (Jan), followed by a series of economic indicators from Europe: UK employment, German & Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb).
• JCI has finally succeeded in breaking the short-term Resistance from the previous High level of 7280 thus seemingly clearing the way to TARGET 7370-7400, back to the all-time-high level. Considering yesterday’s gain was supported by Foreign Net Buy of IDR 1.8 trillion, NHKSI RESEARCH sees that the bullish energy will still continue today, ahead of Indonesia celebrating the democratization week of the ELECTION tomorrow.
Company News
• INCO: Ended 2023 with USD274 Million Profit
• UNVR: Profit Plunged 11.45% in 2023
• ISAT: Record Solid Growth Across Business Lines
Domestic & Global News
• Retailers Refuse to Lower Rice Selling Prices, Here’s Why
• IMF: Middle East Economic Growth to Slow Due to Crude Oil and Gaza Conflicts
Download full report HERE.
