Today’s Outlook:

• US indices closed mixed on Wednesday. the Nasdaq gained around 1.8%, topping the 20,000 threshold and posting an all-time high and a closing record. The broad market S&P 500 added 0.8%. Meanwhile, the 30-stock Dow underperformed, falling around 99 points, or 0.2%. November’s consumer price index report also came in line with economists’ estimates, leading investors to anticipate another rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting next week. The CPI reading, which tracks prices across a basket of goods and services, rose 0.3% month over month and grew at a 12-month rate of 2.7%. Fed funds futures trading data reflects a nearly 99% likelihood that central bank policymakers will lower rates next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

• MARKET SENTIMENT: 4Q24 SNB Interest Rate Decision, December Europe Deposit Facility Rate, December ECB Interest Rate Decision, US initial jobless claims, November US PPI (MoM), ECB Press Conference, US 30-Year Bond Auction

• ASIA MARKETS: Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday, after major Wall Street benchmarks declined ahead of key inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. China is reportedly kicking off its annual economic work conference on Wednesday to outline its economic policies and growth targets for next year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index reversed gains to trade 0.76% lower as of its final hour, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index was 0.17% down and closed at 3,988.83. In South Korea, the blue-chip Kospi jumped 1.02% and finished at 2,442.51 and the small-cap Kosdaq rose 2.17% to 675.92, a day after the country’s parliament passed a downsized budget of 673.3 trillion won (USD470.60 billion) for 2025 late yesterday. This is reportedly the first time that a spending bill had been trimmed down without consent from government ministries. On Wednesday, South Korea’s corruption investigation office for high-ranking officials reportedly said it would seek the detention and arrest of President Yoon Suk Yeol if conditions are met. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose marginally to 39,372.23, while the broad-based Topix was up 0.29% and closed at 2,749.31.

• CURRENCY & FIXED INCOME: The U.S. dollar index was last up 0.2% at 106.63 on Wednesday after U.S. price data came in line with forecasts. The dollar was also boosted by a Reuters report China was considering allowing a weaker currency next year, which sent the yuan and other Asian currencies lower. Treasury yields advanced on Wednesday after November’s consumer price index data matched expectations. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose less than 5 basis points to 4.269%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury rose less than 1 basis point to 4.153%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

– Japan’s yen was in focus after Bloomberg news reported the BOJ sees “little cost” to waiting for the next rate hike. The dollar was last 0.3% higher at 152.43 yen. Earlier in the day the yen strengthened after data showed Japanese wholesale inflation accelerated, supporting the case for a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike next week.

– European markets closed higher on Wednesday, as traders digested corporate updates and the latest U.S. inflation data. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.28% higher, rebounding after snapping an eight-session winning streak on Tuesday. Media stocks led the gains up 1.4%, while retail stocks fell 1.7%.

– The euro was down 0.3% at USD1.0498, while the Swiss franc was down 0.07% against the dollar at 0.8822. In a busy week for monetary policy, the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank meet on Thursday.

• COMMODITIES: Oil prices jumped Wednesday after the European Union agreed an additional round of sanctions threatening Russian oil flows, while a larger-than-expected build in U.S. fuel stockpiles last week capped the gains. Brent crude futures were up USD1.33, or 1.84%, to close at USD73.52 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose USD1.70, or 2.48%, to settle at USD70.29. European Union ambassadors agreed on Wednesday to a 15th package of sanctions on Russia over its war against Ukraine, the Hungarian EU presidency said. Curbing price gains on Wednesday, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by more than-expected last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, weighing on crude prices. Meanwhile, producers’ group OPEC cut its forecasts for demand growth in 2024 and 2025 for the fifth straight month on Wednesday and by the largest amount yet.

– Gold gained on Wednesday after an inflation print came in line with expectations, boosting the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, while investors awaited U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for further direction on monetary policy. Spot gold climbed 1% to USD2,719.40 per ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 1.4% to USD2,756.4.

• JCI continued its uptrend by 12.63 bps (+0.17%) with a bearish opening gap and formed an inverted hammer. NHKSI RESEARCH is of the opinion JCI will have a correction after forming the inverted hammer candle. Investors/traders are advised to WAIT AND SEE for stocks that have been in a strong uptrend rally this week. RUPIAH exchange rate is entrenched at 15,909/USD, there are hopes of “strengthening” Rupiah towards 15,600 – 15,500 at the end of this year based on the plan to cut FFR at the FOMC MEETING on 17-18 December.

Company News

• SRAJ: With Investors’ Permission, Sri Tahir’s Issuer to Issue IDR1.89 T Notes
• BUMI: Bumi Resources Targets 80 Million Tons of Coal Production in 2025
• HITS: Humpuss Intermoda Sells Tanker Griya Ambon IDR 47.07 Billion

Domestic & Global News
Tobacco Excise Tariff Canceled, Cigarette & Vape Selling Price Rules Issued This Week
Vietnam to Qatar Interest in Investing for Cattle Farming in Indonesia

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