Today’s Outlook:

• All three major Wall Street indices closed last week in positive territory after a volatile morning session, managing to recover most of the positions that had collapsed in the past week due to the sell-off that began last Monday. On Friday (9/8/24) the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 51.05 points, or 0.13%, to 39,497.54, the S&P 500 gained 0.47%, and the NASDAQ Composite advanced 0.51%. Positive market sentiment came from a trio of Federal Reserve policymakers who indicated on Thursday that they were more confident inflation was cooling enough to lower interest rates. Their comments – along with a larger-than-expected drop in US jobless claims data – have helped convince investors to support the stock market recovery. Investors are expected to focus heavily on looking for fresh evidence of a possible soft landing for the American economy in the US CPI and Retail Sales readings for July due later this week. A sign that the market has regained its composure, the CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’, fell 3.42 points on Friday to close at 20.37, a far cry from Monday’s intraday panic spike to 65.73, the equivalent of the starting point of the March 2020 Covid Pandemic. Meanwhile, MSCI’s index of worldwide stocks rose 0.69% to 787.16 but was virtually unchanged for the week, edging down just 0.01%.

• ASIA & EUROPE MARKETS: The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.57%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed 0.56% higher on Friday but ended with a weekly loss of nearly 2.5%. The index bounced back from Monday’s 12.4% fall.

• CURRENCY & FIXED INCOME: The DOLLAR INDEX, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of currencies including the Yen and Euro, fell 0.12% to 103.16. Against the Japanese Yen, the Dollar weakened 0.42% to 146.66. The Euro was down 0.03% at USD 1.0915. In US Treasuries, yields fell after a volatile week while investors eye next week’s key inflation data for fresh clues on a potential September rate cut. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 5.7 bps to 3.94%, from 3.997% at  the end of Thursday. The 30-year US Treasury yield fell 6.5 bps to 4.2205% from 4.286%. The 2-year yield, which usually moves in line with interest rate expectations, rose 0.9 bps to 4.0531%, from 4.044% at the end of Thursday.

• COMMODITIES: OIL prices closed higher as fears of widespread MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT persisted, where US WTI gained 0.85% and ended at USD 76.84/barrel while BRENT rose to USD 79.66/barrel, appreciating 0.63% for Friday.

• GOLD prices firmed slightly, with spot gold up 0.12% to USD 2,429.60/ounce. Wells Fargo data noted that CHINA gold ETFs have surged, with holdings increasing by 92% since the beginning of 2023. The bank said the surge in gold-based ETF investments reflects strong demand from Chinese investors seeking safety amid economic uncertainty. Wells Fargo highlighted that Asian gold ETFs have grown 56% since January 2023 with 92% of the increase contributed from Chinese positions. This surge in gold holdings coincides with gold investment returns of 23% over the same period.

• The JCI, which has been a laggard compared to other world indices, unexpectedly managed to post a weekly gain of 2.8% on the back of Foreign Net Buy of IDR 1.1trillion (all markets), or IDR 602bn (RG markets). Even the Rupiah exchange rate strengthened 1.61% to below the 16000 mark, precisely IDR 15920/USD at the end of last week. With the JCI Closing position only slightly above MA20, making JCI must try harder to secure a position at least above yesterday’s High point 7266-7270 as the nearest Resistance, but NHKSI RESEARCH is quite confident that bullish sentiment has begun to crawl into the Indonesian equity market YTD now foreign net buy position has confirmed positive IDR 1.44 trillion (all markets) from the minus IDR 36 trillion recorded last June.

Company News
• HRUM: Harum Energy (HRUM) Seeks IDR 1T Share Buyback Approval
• POWR: Eroded by 40 Percent, POWR’s Profit in the First Half of 2024 Remains USD 33 Million
• APLN: Moody’s Upgrades Agung Podomoro’s Rating to Stable

Domestic & Global News
Wamenkominfo Sebut RI Berpeluang jadi Pemain Semikonduktor AI Global
AS Cabut Larangan Penjualan Senjata ke Arab Saudi

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