Today’s Outlook:

• The S&P 500 Index closed above 5,600 for the first time on Wednesday, led by the Technology sector and continued hopes for faster interest rate cuts after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his second statement before Congress, a day before the release of the latest inflation data. The S&P 500 rose 1% to 5,633.50, the sixth consecutive record. The NASDAQ Composite gained 1% to an all-time closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 442 points, also 1% higher. The technology sector continued to support positive market sentiment, mainly helped by the strengthening of Nvidia shares, and Apple Inc which appreciated 1% amid investor optimism that iPhone sales in 2024 will increase 10% compared to last year, thanks to the support of AI technology, as reported by Bloomberg. Meanwhile from the US central bank, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he continues to see a soft landing for the US economy although the central bank is still sticking to its tight monetary policy in order to bring down inflation. However, the Fed Chairman reiterated remarks from the previous day, saying that “bringing down inflation” is not the only risk and the central bank needs to be “mindful of labor market conditions.” Powell’s comments led traders to largely maintain the odds of a rate cut in September, with CME Fedwatch showing a greater than 72% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the month. Inflation data to be released this Thursday night at around 1930WIB forecasts US CPI to flatten to 3.1% yoy in June, and Core CPI may remain flat at around 3.4% yoy. Regarding labor data, Initial Jobless Claims will be more able to shape market opinion after comparing actual results with predictions of 236k jobless claims in the latest week.

• ASIA & EUROPEAN MARKETS: Speaking of Inflation, CHINA reported its June CPI yesterday which slipped back into deflationary territory at 0.2% yoy, lower than the previous estimate & period at -0.1%. Similarly, PPI was still deflationary at 0.8% yoy, although the pace of price declines at the producer level has slowed from -1.4% in the previous month. Today it’s GERMANY’s turn to release CPI (June) figures where Inflation expectations are soon approaching the ECB 2% level, at 2.2% yoy, cooling from 2.4% the previous month. Meanwhile, the UK hopes to move away from the recessionary territory it was in, with GDP (May) forecast to be able to creep up to 1.2% yoy, from 0.6% in the previous month, of course supported by Industrial & Manufacturing Production (May) which could be more firmly in positive growth territory.

• INDONESIA: the positive growth of 3.5% yoy on Motorcycle Sales in June also contributed positive sentiment to the market as JCI posted another gain this time by 17.24 pts to 7287 level after touching 7313.2 High point aka >7300 crucial region. NHKSI RESEARCH still recommends investors/traders to set your Trailing Stop while letting your profit run. The breakout of the Resistance region yesterday was not supported by the Foreign Net Buy that occurred a few days earlier, but rather foreign net sell (albeit thin) amounting to IDR 28.65 billion.

• COMMODITIES: Energy stocks traded higher, with OIL prices supported by data showing weekly US crude oil and gasoline inventories fell more deeply than expected. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday, showed that US oil inventories unexpectedly plunged by 3.4 million barrels last week, compared to expectations of an increase of 700,000 barrels. Speaking of other commodities, analysts are optimistic that the price of GOLD in the second half of 2024 will continue to strengthen, which they predict will hit a new record in mid-2025, driven by a number of factors including central bank purchases, investors’ own demand trends, and macroeconomic conditions.

Company News

• DEWA: Darma Henwa Signs Another Extension to Pay IDR 358M Debt
• AMMN: Amman Mineral’s Smelter to Start Full Production in January 2025
• TINS: Timah (TINS) Reports Spending IDR 38M for Exploration in the Second Quarter

Domestic & Global News
IKN Construction Delayed, Minister Basuki Bluntly Reveals the Obstacles
China’s June 2024 Inflation Rises Slightly 0.2%

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