US stock indexes remained flat and closed in the red on Tuesday (09/05/23) ahead of the release of US Inflation (Apr.) data tonight around 19.30 Western Indonesia Time (WIB), which is predicted to rise 0.4% MoM and 5% YoY; as well as a meeting between US political leaders to discuss the debt ceiling, which currently touches USD 31.4 trillion, before the threat of default becomes a reality as of June 1. The plunge in PayPal shares also worsened the trading atmosphere, dragging down the S&P 500 index. Unexpectedly, the weekly US oil reserves (API Weekly Crude Oil Stock) recorded to rise far from expectations by 3.618 million barrels, from the forecast and the previous period, which was in negative territory. From Asia, Japan reported Household Spending (Mar.) dropped 1.9% YoY; while China managed to grow its Trade Balance (Apr.) surplus to USD 90.21 billion from USD 88.19 billion in the previous month. This above-expected achievement was supported by a higher-than-expected increase in their exports to 8.5%. In the western part of the world, the UK released data on property sector, namely the Halifax House Price Index (Apr.) which turned out to drop far above expectations and even entered negative territory at minus 0.3%, signaling relatively weak housing demand. This afternoon market participants will monitor Germany’s Inflation (Apr.) data as Europe’s largest economy, which is expected to soften further to 7.2%YoY, from 7.4% in Mar.

An encouraging indication of Indonesia’s improving economic condition began to appear, as seen from the Consumer Confidence Index for April 2023; where the reading was 126.1, higher than 123.3 in March. However, this reading has not been able to lift JCI to a safe level above Resistance 6845 in order to re-establish the short-term Uptrend. Therefore, NHKSI RESEARCH suggests to keep the Hold strategy; and slightly refrain to Average Up as the bullish market sentiment is not solid yet.

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