The Dow Jones notched a weekly loss after closing lower 0.55%/187 points on Friday as traders weighed a weaker monthly jobs report for June (that missed estimates for the first time in 15 months), against expectations that the Federal Reserve still remains likely to resume rate hike later this month. The US economy created 209,000 jobs in June, missing the 225,000 expected and a marked decrease from the 306,000 in the prior month. That marked the weakest pace of job creation since December 2020. But average hourly earnings, or wage growth, rose 4.4% last month, topping estimates of 4.2%. While expectations for a July hike remained baked in, investors are betting that the cooling in the labor market would be enough to keep the Fed from hiking rates again in September. This expectation sent the 2-year US Treasury yield tumbling below 5%, but the yield on the longer tenor (10-year) held onto gains.
Last weekend, JCI & Asian regional markets closed in negative territory again as market participants expect the Fed to tighten monetary policy again at the July FOMC Meeting, and the potential for the US-China trade war to flare up again. As for today, China’s CPI (June) data and Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index (June) will be monitored. Considering the sentiment rolling in the market, NHKSI RESEARCH estimates that JCI will also be impacted by important economic data which becomes the focus this week, namely CPI (June) reports from several major world countries. In order to maintain the bullish sign that appeared in the first week of July 2023, JCI needs to work hard to go through the critical Resistance area of 6745-6765. Therefore, Advise: Wait & See, and gradual Average Up is still the wisest to apply.
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