Today’s Outlook:
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed at new record highs on Thursday, recording their best Q1 performance since 2009 on the back of a rally despite the Tech sector, amid rate cut optimism and economic data that signaled a soft landing in the economy seemed achievable. For Q1, the S&P 500 rose around 10%, its best first quarter gain since 2019, while the DJIA gained almost 6% to achieve its best performance since 2021. The US economy grew faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, with data released Thursday morning showing gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.4% at an annualized rate in the fourth quarter, revised up from the previously reported 3.2%. The revision reflected increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, all of which were supported by a resilient labor market. Another report showed that Initial Jobless Claims fell by 2,000 to 210,000 in the week ended March 23. Meanwhile, the Fed official said that while the central bank will eventually cut interest rates this year, he added that the current resilience of the US economy provides ample room for the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. This was echoed by the PCE PRICE index (Feb) figures which came out when most markets had Easter / Good Friday holidays, giving mixed indications where on an annualized basis it was still heating up somewhat at 2.5% yoy (up from the previous month’s 2.4%), although on a Core PCE Inflation basis it actually appeared to weaken to 2.8% yoy in Feb, from 2.9% in Jan. The economic indicator also recorded Personal Spending (Feb) increased significantly by 0.8% mom, higher than expected and previous month.
• From the ASIA region, South Korea recorded stronger Industrial Production growth in February, as the sector grew 3.1% mom from the previous month’s negative -1.5%. While Tokyo still recorded a weaker Inflation, even the Unemployment Rate increased to 2.6% from 2.4% although Industrial Production tried to get out of the negative zone although it was still weaker than expected. JAPAN’S Retail Sales improved to 4.6% in Feb, higher than the 2.8% forecast. Today there is still a series of economic data from Japan regarding the manufacturing industry, as well as Trade Balance figures from SOUTH KOREA and more importantly watch their Export – Import growth.
• In contrast to the US market, JCI closed the 1st quarter in a concerning position, down -0.47% (despite massive foreign buying flow of IDR 30.99 trillion (all markets in the last 3 months) and IDR 18.84 trillion in RG market; technically JCI slipped from the uptrend channel support that has been guarding the uptrend since the bottom in early November. NHKSI RESEARCH advises investors/ traders to reduce positions more with anticipation that JCI will continue its further consolidation towards 7240/7200; unless JCI is able to improve its position to Resistance level above 7330-7355. INDONESIA investors will monitor Inflation figure (Mar) which is expected to increase to 2.91% yoy from 2.75% in Feb. Moreover, INDONESIA investors are monitoring the Inflation figure (Mar) today, which is expected to accelerate to 2.91% yoy from 2.75% in Feb.
Company News
• MDKA: USD20.65 Million Loss
• SSIA: 2023 Revenue Reached IDR4.53 T
• ASRI: Net Profit Plunged 41%
Domestic & Global News
• As Ramadan Approaches, March Inflation Projected to Reach More than 3%
• Good News! China Manufacturing PMI Records First Expansion in 6 Months
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