XA Update Report | PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA) — 1Q26: Sectoral Headwinds and Credit Slowdown, Operational Strength Maintained
By Leonardo Lijuwardi (Senior Analyst) & Gwenda Deanita (Associate)
4-May-2026
BBCA delivered resilient 1Q26 results with net profit growing 3.8% YoY and 3.8% QoQ to IDR 14.7T (1Q25: IDR 14.1T & 4Q25: IDR 14.1T), underpinned by PPOP of IDR 19.3T (+4.8% YoY, +6.6% QoQ), as non-interest income grew 14.2% YoY — though moderating 3.1% QoQ — while Net Interest Income (NII) remained flat YoY and eased 2.3% QoQ to IDR 21.1T in 1Q26, compressing NIM to 5.4% (1Q25: 5.8% & 4Q25: 5.4%). Operational efficiency was a clear bright spot, with Cost to Income Ratio (CIR) improving sharply to 27.3% (-1.2% YoY, -8.6% QoQ) as opex declined 17.9% QoQ, demonstrating BCA’s cost discipline. CASA momentum remained strong at +11.2% YoY and +4.2% QoQ to IDR 1.09T, with Strong QoQ growth from Current Account and Saving Account, pushing CASA ratio to 85.2%, providing a structural low-cost funding advantage that partially offsets NIM headwinds. The main watch item is provisions rising 22.5% YoY and 45.0% QoQ to IDR 1.2T, reflecting conservative approach and potential asset quality contraction, though BCA’s strong PPOP of IDR 19.3T provides ample headroom to absorb further credit cost normalization without materially pressuring bottom-line growth.
🔹Lending Side: 1Q26 – Flattish QoQ Basis in Business Banking & Contraction in Consumer Credit
• Loan disbursement went slower and softer. BBCA recorded loan growth of +5.6% YoY and +0.1% QoQ to IDR 994T in 1Q26 (FY25: IDR 993T | 1Q25: IDR 941T), reflecting a flattish loan bookings in QoQ basis and softer note in starting the year. This stable loan growth is driven by manufacturing, trading and household sector.
• Corporate loans and commercial still continued to be a growth driver. The corporate segment, accounting for 48.7% of total loans, grew +9.1% YoY and +0.5% QoQ to IDR 483.8T in 1Q26 (FY25: IDR 481.4T | 1Q25: IDR 443.4T), mainly distributed to manufacturing and biz. services sector. The commercial segment recorded IDR 145.2T (+5.7% YoY, +0.6% QoQ) and SME at IDR 131.1T (+5.4% YoY, +0.2% QoQ).
• Consumer loans softened in 1Q26, declining -2.0% YoY and -1.3% QoQ to IDR 221.4T (4Q25: IDR 224.2T, 1Q25: IDR 225.9T), largely weighed down by the continued contraction in auto loans which fell 19.7% YoY, consistent with BBCA’s cautious stance amid the industry dynamics. This pullback reflects BCA’s disciplined risk appetite, prioritizing asset quality preservation over volume growth in a challenging consumer credit environment. Partially offsetting the drag, mortgages grew a steady +5.2% YoY to IDR 142.4T with new bookings up 10.2% YoY, while personal loans expanded 6.8% YoY to IDR 25.1T, demonstrating resilient demand in secured and higher-quality consumer segments.
🔹 Funding Side: CASA Accumulation Remain Strong Till 1Q26
• Strong in CASA Value Growth – Maintaining Strong CASA Ratio. Third-party funds (DPK) increased +8.3% YoY and +3.5% QoQ to IDR 1,292T in 1Q26 (FY25: IDR 1,249T & 1Q25: IDR 1,193T). CASA grew strongly by +11.2% YoY and +4.2% QoQ to IDR 1,089T, while time deposits declined -5.1% YoY and -0.2% QoQ to IDR 203.3T (FY25: IDR 204T & 3M25: IDR 214T), reflecting a continued shift toward lower-cost funding. As a result, CASA ratio improved further to 84.3% in 1Q26 (FY25: 83.7% | 1Q25: 82.1%), reinforcing BBCA’s funding advantage.
🔹BBCA Asset Quality: Remain Stable – But Start Cautious
• Asset quality remained broadly intact in 1Q26. NPL edged up to 1.8% (FY25: 1.7%, 1Q25: 2.0%), driven by consumer, SME, and commercial segments. Following the rose of NPL, LAR also rose to 5.1% (FY25: 4.8%). CoC ticked up to 0.6%, slightly above management’s guidance. NPL and LAR coverage declined -9.2% QoQ and -1.9% QoQ to 174.6% and 69.9% respectively, reflecting a prudent risk management and robust coverage.
🔹 FY26 Outlook: Stable Profitability Amid Slower Credit Growth
• Although there was a decline in 1Q26, early signs of a slowdown in the pace of credit contraction have started to emerge. We remain fairly optimistic that BBCA can achieve net profit of IDR 60.68T in FY26 based on our estimates, with 1Q26 net profit already reaching 24.22% of our full-year forecast. We believe that despite the quarterly moderation in credit growth, supported by a still-solid CASA base and strong operational management—as reflected in an efficient CIR—BBCA continues to have room to expand selectively.
🔹 “Buy” Recommendation with Target Price of IDR 8,800 (Upside Potential of +50.4%)
• NHKSI Research maintains a “Buy” recommendation with a target price of IDR 8,800, implying a forward 26F P/BV of 3.5x (-1 STD of the past 3 years). Recent market correction driven by regulatory risks and Indonesia’s macro uncertainties and contraction has pushed BBCA’s valuation to historically discounted levels. We view this as increasingly attractive, because usually BBCA has typical premium valuation range traded around average 4.0x – 5.0x PBV Ratio.
• Potential catalysts include sustained operational performance supported by stronger loan growth and a more expansionary NIM trajectory which also supported by stronger operational performance. Key risks to our call include macroeconomic and political uncertainty, intensifying competition within the banking sector, and potential downside to loan growth and NIM relative to expectations.
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