Bank Indonesia recorded that the current account surplus in 4Q22 amounted to USD 4.3 billion or 1.3% of GDP, a slight slowdown from 3Q22 of USD 4.5 billion; the recorded amount was supported by non-oil and gas trade balance surplus and high export commodity prices. Thus, the current account surplus throughout 2022 rose significantly to USD13.2 billion (1% of GDP) compared to the 2021 surplus of USD3.5 billion. (0.3% of GDP).
Today, a series of economic data that concerns global financial markets scheduled to release, most of which are Purchasing Manager Index from Japan, France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US. In addition, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index will provide a view of economic conditions for the next six months, surveyed from 350 German institutional investors and analysts. Lastly, the US Existing Home Sales (Jan.) will also be monitored from the previous figure of 4.02 million. It is now expected to rise to 4.1 million, providing an insight into the US housing market and an indicator of general economic strength. From the East, China kept its lending rate at 3.65% for the 6th consecutive month. The Dollar Index traded around 104, remaining steady as robust US economic data is expected to keep the Fed hawkish. The 10-year US Treasury bond is still perched at a 6-week highs of 3.822%.
Bond Restructuring of PT Waskita Karya Tbk The government is targeting the bond restructuring of PT Waskita Karya Tbk (WKST) to be completed by April 2023, faster than the initial plan in July. This decision is made to allow Waskita to continue working on strategic projects, such as the completion of the IDR 12 trillion toll road project. Deputy Minister of SOE II Kartika Wirjoatmodjo emphasized that Waskita’s creditors from banks, pension funds, and retail investors must accept Waskita’s restructuring in order for the company to recover. (Investor Daily)
Issuing SBN Retail State Sukuk SR018 The government plans to issue Retail Government Securities (SBN) of the Retail State Sukuk (SR) or SR018. This safe investment, guaranteed by the state with sharia principles, is believed to attract retail investors during the offering period, scheduled for March 3 to 29, 2023. SR018 is tradable in the secondary market so that investors may sell before maturity.
US10YT is consolidating after reaching Resistance from the previous High level of 3,905. Keep an eye on the nearest Support which is MA10/3.78 in order to keep this short term Uptrend intact. ADVISE: Average Up above 3.93 because with such a break, yield will accelerate towards TARGET: 4.243 / 4.338.
ID10YT is moving more bullish after yield break Neckline of the first Bottoming pattern which is Inverted Head & Shoulders (blue), supported by MA10 & MA20 which has been golden crossed; providing a platform for short term Uptrend at least towards TARGET: yield 7.0. The second trend reversal pattern is when ID10YT breaks the upper channel downtrend (blue) around the 6.84% yield figure; which will open the way to a higher TARGET at 7.203. ADVISE: Gradual Average Up above 6.812 & 6.84.
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