Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk. (AMMN) : Smelter Strikes a Rich Vein, Lifting 9M26 Earnings

 

by Steven Willie (Equity Research Analyst)

12 Nov 2026

 

AMMN delivered strong 9M26 results, with revenue of USD 3,237.7 mn (+493.7% YoY) and net profit of USD 871.5 mn (vs. a net loss of USD 178.5 mn in 9M25). In 3Q26, its first full quarter without concentrate exports, the smelter and PMR produced 54.0 kt of cathode and 174.8 koz of refined gold, lifting net profit to USD 373.5 mn (+10.6% QoQ, vs. a net loss of USD 29.8 mn in 3Q25). We raise FY26F net profit by +27.5% to USD 1,120.9 mn and maintain our BUY rating and TP of IDR 5,600/share (+50.1% upside) on a life-of-mine SOTP.

 

9M26 & 3Q26 Financial Performance


Refined metals took over the topline as concentrate exports ended. AMMN booked 9M26 revenue of USD 3,237.7 mn (+493.7% YoY). 3Q26 revenue reached USD 1,185.3 mn (+226.8% YoY, -4.8% QoQ) as concentrate exports ended in April, but cathode revenue jumped to USD 717.4 mn (+244.9% YoY, +163.9% QoQ) and refined gold to USD 461.3 mn (+198.2% YoY, +101.8% QoQ), on output of 54.0 kt (+154.3% YoY, +156.2% QoQ) and 174.8 koz (+290.2% YoY, +212.5% QoQ).


Full downstream integration lifted margins. 9M26 gross profit rose +1,128.4% YoY to USD 1,653.8 mn and EBITDA +646.7% YoY to USD 1,889.1 mn, lifting GPM, OPM and EBITDA margin to 51.1%, 47.6% and 58.3% respectively (vs. 24.7%, 4.7% and 46.4% in 9M25). Lower duty, higher acid credits and smelting costs of USD 1,194/t (vs. USD 2,044/t in 1H26) lifted 3Q26 GPM to 58.2% (vs. 50.0% in 2Q26 / 21.8% in 3Q25) and OPM to 53.2% (vs. 47.8% in 2Q26 / 15.4% in 3Q25).


Deleveraging began to ease the interest burden. 9M26 finance costs rose +32.0% YoY to USD 373.9 mn but eased to USD 118.2 mn in 3Q26 (+2.2% YoY, -8.4% QoQ) as total debt fell to USD 5,568 mn(vs. USD 5,845 mn in 2Q26). 9M26 net profit reached USD 871.5 mn, with NPM at 26.9% (vs. -32.7% in 9M25), while 3Q26 net profit rose to USD 373.5 mn (+10.6% QoQ, vs. a net loss of USD 29.8 mn in 3Q25), with NPM at 31.5% (vs. 27.1% in 2Q26 and -8.2% in 3Q25).




New Mill Keeps the Smelter Fed, Softer Metals Temper 4Q26

Remaining FY26 guidance looks conservative, with cathode and refined gold well within reach. Against FY26 guidance of 900 kdmt of concentrate, 130 kt of cathode and 350 koz of refined gold, the 9M26 production run-rate stands at 64.5%, 79.1% and 84.8%, respectively. The remaining 27.2 kt of cathode and 53.1 koz of refined gold require only 49.5% and 36.7% of quarterly capacity in 4Q26, well below 3Q26 output of 54.0 kt and 174.8 koz, so we expect AMMN to meet or beat its guidance, as management indicated. Concentrate is the only line that needs a step-up (+37% QoQ to ~319 kdmt).


Copper has held up, while gold has eased. LME copper trades at ~USD 13,800/t, only 1.7% below AMMN’s 9M26 realised price of USD 14,038/t, while gold at ~USD 3,980/oz sits 9.7% below its realisedUSD 4,406/oz. Further declines in gold and copper prices could temper 4Q26 earnings.


Forecasts raised on the stronger 9M26 delivery. We raise FY26F revenue by +13.4% to USD 4,378.7 mn (+137.1% YoY) and net profit by +27.5% to USD 1,120.9 mn (+350.2% YoY), which 9M26 covers at 73.9% and 77.7%. This implies 4Q26 net profit of USD 249.4 mn (-41.7% YoY, -33.2% QoQ).

Maintain BUY Recommendation with Target Price at IDR 5,600/Share

We maintain our BUY rating on AMMN with an unchanged TP of IDR 5,600/share, implying +50.1% upside. Our TP is derived from a SOTP valuation of the Batu Hijau and Elang mines and implies 20.1x FY26F P/E and 10.8x FY26F EV/EBITDA. At the current price, AMMN trades at 13.4x FY26F P/E and 7.9x FY26F EV/EBITDA.


Risk(s): 1) lower copper and gold prices; 2) Elang mine FID delay; 3) smelter, PMR or concentrator downtime; 4) higher royalties.



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